New Day Rising (Falling [Dying?])

11:25am

We'll go ahead and start over, since last night was too drunk to walk. Split the night games (push on SDSU, +2u on Wake, -2u on the UT/SDSU over (which was purely based on intoxication) . . . +4u for the tourney. Only one morning bet: +2 on Temple over Cornell at (-3.5).

Jared and I broke even at the casino . . . by which I mean he won a buck and I lost a buck. That's fun. I peed on Prairie Meadows on the way out. Nice forty 12s in a row, assbags.

Our trip to Village Inn this morning was completely uneventful . . . complete with disagreement with the "Did You Know?" that said a majority of people think sharing chocolate pie is the most romantic (answer is obv "Hair Pie"), Troy seeing a condor outside of the restaurant (it's 30 degrees in Iowa), and paying for a $9.95 tab with $12 and getting change back . . . with different 1's than were given to the waitress. Seriously? You didn't get that was a tip?

Also of note: no bloody mary mix at Walmart, Target or Casey's. HyVee was too far away, so we're starting with lovely mixed drinks that aren't bloody marys.

Justin's upstairs bathroom (the kid's bathroom; he's 2) now has toilet paper, so we're back to pooping post-Industrial Revolution. Also, the kid's shower has both shampoo and conditioner - his hair did look silky-smooth though, so who am I to judge?

I couldn't pull the trigger on anything for the UM/Xavier game, but that might be a true pick'em game, and the WVU line looks right (except for, y'know, Morgan State being up 5 right now) . . . We'll see what happens. LOVE GT though, in case any of you feel like printing money at +1.5.

--

4:15pm

Getting awesome - day 2 is always a wreck, because we start with liquor and you're re-drinking anyway. When you're pre-tarded, it doesn't take long to get into awful mode, and it's happening fast . . . for example, Tony and Troy just got locked up into a pseudo-humping position, where Troy threw some sort of f-ed-up wrist lock on Tony, then at the stalemate proclaimed "This is a weiiiiird situation." It was. It completely was.

During the early session, we had 2 games going, so TV3 featured an accidental change to infomercials . . . luckily it was "Brazilian Butt Lift." Just an epic infomercial, complete with lunges and hip thrusts and, uh, rubber bands. They offered the "pencil test" whereby you put a pencil under your buttock and if it doesn't fall, SURPRISE! You're fat!

Well, Troy's response: "If I did that, you wouldn't even see the fucking pencil."

Additional lines:

-"That guy would eat him from the butthole up" (in re: Badgers versus Terriers)
-Mettille does the Cap'n Morgan voice . . . "Calling AALLlellllelalll captains!" Brent then requests, "Say 'add green beans to the shopping list'" (he did)
-Brent: "We'll give you the tube steak - you've gotta work for the gravy." (also, he has a college education - this is not a NASCAR mentality or anything).

Wonderful. On the bright side, +3u on the afternoon session (split Wisconsin -10 and the under, then won Mizzou +2, Pitt -10 and Pitt moneyline -475 for 1u total win), putting me +5u for the tourney. Also took USU +3 against A&M, which looks TERRIBLE right now, so let's not get too attached to that. Punch me in the cock.


6:10pm

Decision time: so I kind of went nuts with the evening games (even though I only really like two of them) . . . so there's that. But first:

During a classic mid-afternoon drunktalk about what you would do with a hot tub time machine, Mettille gave the classic/normal "change some decisions"-type answer. Brent, however? He would "bring a pitcher of bahama mamas" to the party today . . . "one of those 2-gallon ones, that you have to use two hands on."

He followed up, 2 hours later, by saying "we need 1.5 liters of Bahama Mama."

Later: "No, this is my dick" followed by "My balls are too big, my penis cannot conquer them. They cannot divide. United they stand."

This was over a disagreement in beerpong rules: "Bitch I'm going to kill you. When you sleep." Later, wrestling with the kid and the dog, Brent said "UUGHHH, something just hit my balls . . . I hope it was the dog."

Riiight. So I love GT and moderately like both NMSU and FSU, so I did the obvious thing: 1u on each, plus a "wheeled" parlay with .5u on every two games plus all three games (for 2u total). I suppose I don't need to "win" or anything. Holy balls I'm a moron.

---

2am

Amazing night, spreadsheet-wise . . . ran the full boat for +5.5u in the night session (and my boy Jimmer ran along for much, much more money in Vegas dollars, which is always fantastic). Had everyone but OSU, plus a parlay, which is great.

In other news:

"I really thought only a loss would result in violent nudity. But I was wrong."

Riley stomps on shit: "If your kid were in Vietnam, he'd be DEAD."
BH: "If Riley were in Vietnam, he'd be Charlie."

Also, Verne Lundquist said earlier: "THAT'S A MAN'S JAM!" . . . uhhhh . . .

Nice life.

New Guy's in the Corner Puking His Guts Out

11:45am

On like Donkey Kong, or really any number of applicable cliches about the beginning of something. Jared and I actually made it by tip, which lost Tony money (clearly the best part of any given day) . . . normally this would end with "EAT A DICK SON" but it might be a touch too early.

Fantastic. This morning, I saw a kindly-appearing older gentleman walking around the sculpture garden, in that dedicated way where you can tell its his exercise for the day. He had on finely-pressed pants and one of those old-guy golf hats . . . and a navy blue "SPAM" sweatshirt. That's the metaphor for today: looks nice, with four TVs working with every game and 20 laptops running gambling spreadsheets, but at the end of the day, it's drunken asshole fried Spam. So good.

I drew my first drink out of the mystery bag, and wound up with Mike's Hard Cranberry. This year's booby prize: Hard Cranberry Light. Apparently it tastes like shame and iced scrotum. More to follow.

My bets:

-Ark Pine Bluff +4 (and the under at 112.5): +1.5u
-BYU -5 1u
-Nova -17.5 1u
-ODU +4 .5u

Yeah. All looking GREAT. Also Loyd Jr. for BYU is a stud, but fucking A . . . how can you be a black dude and go to BYU? They didn't allow black guys to go to heaven until like 1981, and no black priests until the 90s. The 1990s. This really happened. But yeah, brother - keep on grinding out. I need the 3s.

UNI and Marquette both play at the same time tonight (6:10 and 6:20), so this will be a total shitshow. Watching Brent and JC fight over which one is on the projection screen (and both should be GREAT games) is super exciting, like when you're expected sexual intercourse at some point in the near future but you're not quite sure when, how or why. In other words, it's High School-level excitement in here - Brent's running around the house with a yoke on his neck, while JC is speed-bombing Mickey's and punching the pork shoulder that's being smoked. Also, LOTS of "smoked meat" jokes, which are SO FUNNY. Meanwhile, Troy is dancing around to C&C Music Factory on a Papa John's commercial and asking if "Y'all ready for this" DUN DUH DUH.

Aaaaaand a "fucked your mother" joke - beautiful. See you guys never.


2:05pm

HOLY GOD DAMN MY LIFE what a wonderful cover by BYU. I LOVE MORMON PEOPLE!

That puts me +.5u and +2 for the tourney.

Also, the cheer when Jimmer Fredette started knocking down those last two free throws was delicious (obv Tony lost on UF there). Nearly as awesome as Jimmer's awkward-as-balls wave to the camera on top of him after a particularly gruesome layup miss/foul.

So far, it's been excellent - the first three games featured a one-point loss (and fucking GOOOOOOOOODY putting back a 2-pointer with no time, down by three - perhaps the stupidest thing I've ever seen in a non-Iowa basketball game) and two overtime games. Just amazing - best two days of the year.

As per usual rules, pooping is relegated to the farthest bathroom . . . those pipes are still exposed in the basement, so Brent has greeted every flush through those pipes with "There goes his turd!" The assumption is that Troy's BM would sound like someone dying on South Park - just gurgling and bubbling and a melting noise, possibly with audible English words.

We had to vote on which game to project . . . Brent was roundly outvoted, then got pissed, claiming his vote only counts 3/5ths (and with some claims he's still waiting on his 40 acres and a mule). Mild racism is always funniest when it is rooted in the 1850s. I told him he has to take a test and pay a tax before he can go to the fridge, we'll see how that goes.

Line of the day so far, about Steve's shih tzu/poodle mix (obviously a shitoodle):

JC: "Wait . . . aren't shih tzus like, this big ? How does a shih tzu fuck a poodle?"
*loooooooong pause*
JJ: "Uh, well . . . I think the poodle fucks the shih tzu."

(place everyone going "Ahhhhhhh" here)


6:05pm

It's getting a little silly . . . apparently, Justin has an Olympic weight set, complete with a 45 lb bar. This makes almost zero sense, so obviously we jumped on it and had everybody max. After about 5 hours of drinking. Troy and Mettille actually put up something around 235 . . . I did not.

Also, Brent and JC are now jockeying for clothing for those in attendance . . . handing out either UNI or Marquette paraphernalia and trying to get people in it. I'm in a Marquette Spring Party 2001 shirt, for instance. Brent is now wearing an adult L that is so big on him, he took off his pants and borrowed a woman's belt so it looks like a dress. This somehow makes sense. Tony has on bicep wraps like the Ultimate Warrior made out of purple t-shirt sleeves. Troy cut off the stomach, so he's busting out of the thing - he looks like a gay offensive lineman in 1982. I am so confused.

I won on St. Mary's and KSU (2u), and lost on Vandy (SO BAD JFKDL:AHOFDL) . . . now +4.5u, and pushing this:

-Kentucky -18.5
-UNI Pk
-Marquette -1

Also I parlayed all four unders . . . I have no idea why. Drinking? I guess.

Additionally, some choice lines that I don't have time to fully write up:

Brent: "I pushed in your mother's backdoor"
JC: "What if one of us goes south?"
Steve: "That's why the large ones are hard to take"
JC: "I have a no-porno clause"
JC: "I don't want the black cards."
Mettille: "Look at the vein on that one."

Also the beerpong bracket has begun, the porno cards are out, and the sun is out. I suppose . . . I suppose.

Day 1: Early Lines

So the early lines are up (on Bodog and, well, everywhere else) for Thursday's first-round NCAA action. The first round is, supposedly, the greatest gambling day of the year, because public money pushes the lines in all sorts of awkward directions, and reputation means more than results to a large swath of the population. Taking a look at the lines, there are a few that stand out:

[8]UNLV (-1) v. [9]Northern Iowa
It looks like the wrong team is favored here, with both Massey and KenPom giving UNI anywhere from a 1 to 1.5-pt edge. Of course, 2 points isn't a brutal edge, but when it flips the line, we pay more attention. Of course, depending on the money line, that might be the stronger play.

[6]Tennessee (-3) v. [11]SDSU
Both Massey and KenPom list this as closer to a 1.5-pt game . . . that other UT is a little overrated this year, and their "run-and-gun" style has been crippled by the 2nd Amendment (they're about average in pace) ... instead, they've done it with defensive efficiency, crushing 3P% for other teams. Unfortunately, SDSU is not a 3-oriented team (200th in 3PA/FGA), and SDSU crushes the offensive glass with a strong inside game that UT isn't tall enough to counteract. Could be a good matchup.

[4]Vanderbilt (-3) v. [13]Murray State
Massey has this at 3, while KenPom has it at 5.5+, giving some protection here. Vandy is likely overseeded a little, but Ogilvy in the middle may have a field day against Murray State.

[7]BYU (-5) v. [10] Florida
There are some that feel Florida is the worst at-large admitted to the field this year, and both Massey and KenPom think the true line is closer to 7. Good enough for me, even if BYU is, well, BYU.

[7]Richmond (-2) v. [10]Saint Mary's
Again, the wrong team is favored - Massey and KenPom have StM's as between a 1.5 and 3-point favorite. The Spiders have talent, there's no doubt, and this one might not pass the smell test based on matchups - Richmond is a bad O-reb team, a true "one-shot" offense that plays with pace and doesn't turn the ball over, while StM's is pretty bad at forcing turnovers. However, StM's can shoot the lights out, and if flying across the country doesn't slow it down, watch out.

And some quick hits:
-The numbers don't love Kentucky - that (-20) might be a little high, may be value in ETSU.
-Montana isn't particularly good, but nothing indicates that NMU should be a (-9) favorite in that game. May be a good place to pound the dog.
-It's not cut-and-dried, but it looks like KSU might clear the (-16) over UNT with some ease.
-Nobody has any clue what to do with the ND/ODU game. In fact, half the capping sites have ODU as a true favorite and the other half think (-3) is perfectly right. Unreal game really.

Loose Women, Hard Lemonade and Awkward Bank Shots

It's so close, you can smell it - that smell that will linger on you (and JC's basement) for a few days afterward, one that you don't even notice anymore because now, well, that's just how the world smells. And it smells good. Kind of.

We're three short days away from the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament, where 64 teams will bludgeon each other over and over until one winner appears, ready to cut down the nets about 7 weeks after the tourney starts. Since it is an orgiastic day of basketball, gambling, and drinking, we've spent years (YEARS JERRY) perfecting how to best mix these three things together while still retaining jobs, families, and without driving anything anywhere at all. We've got it down to a science. A fat, hairy, awesome science. Here's from 07, and from 08, and from 09, although . . . I mean . . . I lived it, sister. I just don't remember any of it.

The gamboooling is clearly the most important part, however - and so I'll run down a little about my system for determining "fair" lines, which I'll use to coast to an even-money finish, losing again to Brent, who will brush his teeth before bed every night even though he passed out for hours in the afternoon.

The 'key' to the whole deal is what is known as the "log5" method of determining comparative win probability. That sounds complex, but it's not - basically, if one team is a .600 team and the other is a .550 team, we want to know how often the .600 team would win if they played a thousand times (hint: It's not .575). The formula is:

(A-A*B) / (A+B+2*A*B)

So in our example, the .600 team would be expected to win 55.1% of the time. We can then convert this to a money line/point spread - the 'real' line would be between 1.5 and 2.5 points (depending on your conversion method). Easy - and you can even do it in Excel after drinking all morning. Trust me, this is vital to any projection system.

The play-in game gives us a chance to test it out. Winthrop is a 4-point favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and when we look at the weighted "true" values for each team, it looks like our "true" spread should be anywhere from 2.8 to 3.5. Massey (www.mratings.com) puts his guess at 3.7 in the same direction, so we know we're in the ballpark as the big boys here.

Looking at some other factors (courtesy of www.kenpom.com - one of the greatest sites in the f-ing universe), Pine Bluff plays a moderately-paced game based around a solid defense and pretty frigging awful offense, while Winthrop . . . does exactly the same thing. In fact, their numbers are nearly identical - you would sleep with one and not realize it wasn't the other, at least until it rolled over and gave off the MangleFace Vibe. I don't know where I'm going with this, but the teams are remarkably similar. As a result, we have no need to shift our profile at all, so we can say we lean juuuuust a little toward taking the points and riding "The Harvard of Pine Bluff" as hard as possible (NOTE: in this analogy, Shooter's Bronco-Bustin' NASCAR Bar is the Yale of Pine Bluff, and the local Valero is Brown). Also note: don't bet this game, it's really too close to take any edge.

The Manning Fallacy

There's a LOT of public sentiment (and money) moving toward the Colts, even with the line all the way to Indy giving 6. This, of course, leads to only one question:

Why?

You have to completely pretend the regular season never happened (or that the NFC is very much the Senior Circuit equivalent) to honestly believe this is a touchdown game. Most of the talk has centered around Peyton Manning "not allowing" this opportunity to pass - as if Brees & Co. have no idea of the ramifications of this game in cementing their legacies. However, if you'll indulge me, I'd like to posit something slightly controversial: while Manning is a legit 1st-ballot Hall of Famer with a legit claim to the title of "Best Ever", today, Drew Brees is a better quarterback.

Brees is 3 years younger (30 to Manning's 33), threw for more TDs and fewer INTs in fewer attempts (34:11 in 514 vs. 33:16 in 571), and completed a higher percentage of his passes (70.6 to 68.8). Manning led in DYAR (see www.footballoutsiders.com), a measure of success over raw yardage, but Brees was a close second, and his 12% fewer attempts can account for the entirety of the difference. If Manning is the gold standard, you're still measuring Brees in ounces Troy. It just might be 24k to 22k at this point.

Beyond that, the Saints can actually run the ball - first in the world in DVOA (again, FO.com), a measure of rushing success versus down-and-distance and game state, with three legit backs with vastly different profiles. The Colts will go one-dimensional and put it on the back of their Superman, but the Saints were actually in the top 10 against the pass this year, and Jabari Greer is a sound lock-down corner who can disrupt Wayne and/or Clark in coverage. While Manning picked apart the Jets using Collier and Garcon last week, Greg Williams gets 2 weeks to scheme against the crossing routes and limit YAC. It's a wash, at worst.

Besides that, the Saints are deeper at every position - and their depth also includes a number of possible big-play threats. While Indy is dicking around (and both teams' numbers are legit terrible on special teams), only NO really has the ability to break a punt or INT for 6.

For those reasons, I can't imagine laying the points - take the Saints, take the 6, profit.

The 2009 Mixtape

So, I don't send out a Christmas card or anything - let's be honest, you don't want to hear about my incredible year when you're out of work, or my boxed dinners if you're married with kids, or my bar experiences if you're actually a fun person. Instead, like every year, I've put together a mixtape of the best music I heard in 2009 - rules are simple: 1.) fit on a CD 2.) don't suck. It doesn't.

DOWNLOAD THIS SHIT HERE!

Passion Pit, "Sleepyhead"
As per every other year, I'll start with the track I listened to the most in 2009 - "Sleepyhead" is an absolute masterpiece, hitting all the senses at once. From the oddly-looped samples in the background, to the chopped-and-screwed trills behind the bridge solo, to the low end just beating in . . . just an awesome pop song, one that isn't quite "pop" but definitely isn't "electronic," just "awesome."

Phoenix, "Lisztomania"
From the first second of jangly guitars, you know something amazing is on tap . . . but the left-field surprise is that the song is about exactly that expectation, that build-up. It's a great song about how impossible it can seem to write a great song - using Franz Liszt, who created an absolute hysteria in the late 1800s as a concert pianist in Europe, as the anchor. When Thomas Mars notes songs go "from a mess to the masses" then tells himself "this is your time/ this is your time/ this is you-r time.." he's not just talking about TMZ. Then, the song just ends - bliss, then silence. Metaphor is best subtle.

Yeah Yeah Yeahs, "Heads Will Roll"
Almost like the spiritual (and literal reverse) of the Killers' "Mr. Brightside" - the night shimmers while the song does, but Karen O is the predator. Jagged guitars mix with smooth synth, plus organic-yet-cold drums and low end - try not to shake your ass to this in the car. The YYYs can still be edgy, even when being as cosmopolitan as possible.

Japandroids, "Wet Hair"
Just three lines, repeated about 50 times each - although each change in inflection and timing changes everything. Just two guys, overdubbed guitar and drums - although the wall of sound is impressive and inviting. That's all it takes. "We run the gauntlet/ we must get to France/ so we can French kiss some French girls" is summer in so many syllables.

Surfer Blood, "Swim"
Fun fact: these guys used to call themselves Jabroni Sandwich, which would be the stupidest shit I've ever heard if I hadn't spent all year listening to a band called Japandroids. Luckily the songs are better - just a massive anthem, in and out in 3 minutes, the way it's supposed to be.

Matt and Kim, "Daylight"
In a lot of ways, the 'idea' of Matt and Kim is much more successful than the band itself - their first record was "neat" in all of the ways that can be bad (or, more properly, annoying), but until "Daylight" it didn't all come together. A half-dozen commercials later, and you'll definitely recognize the song (if you don't already hate it), but it's still an absurd anthem I'll take with me.

The Big Pink, "Dominos"
The drum intro portends great things, like the "Mature -N" tag on a Cinemax late-night direct-to-DVD movie. You're expecting the song to just blow up - but the Big Pink has all the time in the world. Fuck that - you can sit through a little bit of an interlude before we break into the FUCK YOU chorus . . . five words, stretched to about 12 syllables, and the best MGMT impression you'll ever want to hear. British people: still awesome.

Animal Collective, "My Girls"
A slow-building, consistently-beautiful swinging ode from Animal Collective's Panda Bear (aka Noah Lennox, also featured later) to 'his girls': his wife and young daughter. The music and lyrics swirl and wrap in on themselves, almost like a Celtic knot, ending in a plaintive refrain: "I don't mean/ to seem like I care about material things/ like social status/ I just want/ four walls and adobe slats/ for my girls" . . . then the OOOOoooooooohhh! takes it away and we start it all over again. It's a post-modern serenity prayer, and it's the best song I heard all year - not particularly close.

Grizzly Bear, "Two Weeks"
When the keyboard and oh-ohs begin, pretty much the last thing you expect out of Grizzly Bear is for the low end to drop and a light drumroll to carry the tune through the verse - but that's exactly what happens, and Grizzly Bear does it all over again.

Florence and the Machine, "Kiss with a Fist"
If Neko Case is my indie-rock love affair (and make no mistake, she is - I would sit in her bushes for hours if I weren't scared shitless of her), Florence Welch is the rough-and-tumble UK response. Note that I'm assuming this song is metaphorical, although I guess the domestic violence overtones could go a variety of rad directions on their own. ELIN NORDEGREN WOODS JOKE HERE AMIRIGHT?

The XX, "Crystalized"
Languid, sexual, restrained but only barely, with elements of soul, electronic music, and even R&B. Of all the tracks on this CD, this is clearly the one with the best shot at "crossover" appeal - not Cadillac commercials, but sustainable chart-topping viability, soccer moms to douchebags like me.

Mumford & Sons, "Roll Away Your Stone"
Like a smart Dave Matthews Band who learned to play bluegrass instead of elevator music, a shit-stomping exploration of the self - with a COMPLETELY AMAZING banjo. It's not just the banjo, though - the entire sog oozes credibility, and "Darkness is a harsh term/ don't you think?" asks two questions at once: is it the "name of the term, or the time spent serving the term?

Girls, "Lust for Life"
Song titles matter. Listening to this track with the title in mind proves the rule.

Akron/Family, "River"
What's this? An extended nautical metaphor using a variety of musical styles, ranging from whistling to woodwind sections? Sure, it's not a brand-new formula for indie rock - it's basically what would happen if the Decemberists spent less time in drama class or at Ren Faires and instead smoked weed and spoke like regular fucking human beings. That's a good thing.

Atlas Sound, "Walkabout (ft. Noah Lennox)"
If you know much about Bradford Cox and Noah Lennox, the fact that it's a song about growing up, growing old and holding onto/releasing dreams and beliefs is completely unsurprising. The heavy Beach Boys influence is only slightly surprising. That it's an impeccable pop song makes perfect sense.

Big Boi, "Shine Blockas (ft. Gucci Mane)"
Don't tell Big Boi that rap has passed the Outkast formula by - he'll just prove it hasn't with this retro/funk kick to the dick, with the enigmatic Gucci Mane in tow. "Word to LeBrown James/ he some chicken chow mein/ anyway/ you done say some silly things" - he's talking to you, assholes. Even a Tyler Perry reference, for those huge TBS fans in the fucking HOUSE HOLLER.

Raekwon, "House of Flying Daggers (ft. Ghostface, Inspectah Deck, GZA & Method Man)"
Stunningly, Deck starts off: "We pop off like a mobster boss/ angel hair with the lobster sauce" . . . and we're off, with that same tremor and magic you've wanted since 36 Chambers (probably, Cuban Linx the Original). Not only does Deck sound relevant, Method Man is absurdly good, but most important: the Iron/Chef balance is back, and Ghostface goes fucking crazy: "from Benetton rugby skullies/ Oshkosh conductor jumpers/ the train hats fit me lovely/ Rae's job is to make sure the coke is fluffy/ While I politic his birthday bash with Puffy/ bagged Nia soon as I linked up, the kid ain't inked up/ I'm an old mummy, my gold weigh as much as King Tut/ slippers, robes is minked up, under the do-rag bro/ my three dimensional fade is clean cut" . . .

The Hood Internet, "Solid Gold from New York"
AZ/Ghostface mashed up with the Golden Filter - and it sounds like the way the song should have to start. The stark, street-oriented versus play brilliantly off the glittering synths, almost like an audio tour of the City itself.

Kid Cudi, "Make Her Say (ft. Kanye West, Common, & A-Trak)"
The best Lady Gaga song released, ever. Beautifully vulgar perfection.

Roll Deep, "Shake a Leg"
And now, calypso! I have a grime fixation, so this is no surprise - sure it wasn't released this year (in the US), but I hadn't heard it, so eat a dick son. "Know what would be dandy?/ a little glass of brandy" is my new favorite put-down.

Major Lazer, "Pon de Floor (ft. Vybz Kartel)"
The video says more than I ever could.

Biggy Smalls vs. Miley Cyrus, "Party and Bullshit in the USA"
Yep. Yep. Yep.