Oh. My. Science.

So there's been a lot going on, and a lot of catching up to do . . .

Manny. Fuck.

Just in case you're the last apologist on the planet, now it's pretty safe to assume that anybody on Earth who had a.) money and b.) any common sense is, has or tried to beat the MLB drug testing policy. That's just how it was - it happened. To be honest, I would have done it too - both for the drive to become the best, and because HOLY SHIT TWENTY MILLION DOLLARS. That doesn't mean it's right, and there is absolutely no way to endorse its effects on children (which is really the true downside to athletes using), but there it is.

There are SO MANY great things about the Manny story, though. First, his excuse is, essentially, a "piss-the-bed" excuse - it requires about the same level of self-delusion as the time you woke up after a night of drinking and thought, "hey, I really sweated a lot last night - it is kind of hot out here, after all, and I'm nearly certain the sweat isn't localized in the crotch region either *whistles*" . . . and I assume everyone's been there. Oh, you haven't? Awkward. Manny's supposed infertility is awesome - dude's not even 40, and already has a kid. Good work, Boras - apparently your deal with Satan does not include believable lies.

Luckily, it appears that NO ONE CARES! Seriously - it was a two-day story and now . . . gone. Does this mean we're finally getting over the media-fueled hysteria and can start to focus on real issues (like, oh, teaching kids the dangers of steroids, or teaching players how to do them more safely so they don't die at age 44)? Probably not - it's likely apathy. What a world.

The most interesting part though? If reports that the MLB investigation was triggered by elevated synthetic testosterone levels are accurate, then holy shit . . . that means whatever steroid Manny is using is NOT CURRENTLY DETECTABLE BY MLB. All he had to do was keep that 4:1 ratio, and no one would have ever found out. We always suspected that, much like the Acme Anvil Company versus the Road Runner, rogue chemists were multiple steps ahead of testing. This is literal proof - this is the puff of smoke the Road Runner left behind, or the sour taste in your mouth left after a continuation of that hack analogy. Apparently, still - no one cares.

A-Rod. Fuck You.


Selena Roberts still, well, sucks - seriously, her righteous indignation over the "culture of masculine impropriety-slash-rich people are awesome-tude" during the Duke Lacrosse Shitshow makes Louis Farrakhan look like MLK (note: that comparison brought to you by the Rooney Rule). However, the A-Rod book (awesomely titled "A-Rod" - no shit!) is simply brilliant. If we ignore, well, any semblance of journalistic integrity, and simply take all this shit at face value, we learn:

-A-Rod had a clubhouse attendant put toothpaste on his toothbrush after every game. This is not only epic douchebaggery (not even the richest, most entitled fuck on Wall Street really thinks he's above toothpasting), it's also just amazing. Like, the first thing you're thinking after a game, at 11pm or whatever, is "boy, I really want to brush my teeth, but I'd like that to be facilitated for me so it is just a little bit less demanding of me and my time"? Shouldn't a wealthy pro athlete think "boy, I should send that clubbie out for hobags" instead?

-His pickup line was something along the lines of "who's hotter, me or Jeter?" Durrr, he fucked Mariah Carey and Jessica Biel while you traipsed around with manly Canadian strippers, you dense fuck. Boy, I wonder - who could it possibly be?

-Seriously, it just keeps going from there . . . Bitch Tits? Awesome.

Weirdest. Week. Ever.

I'm not sure I can really absorb all this, so let's just count down the crazy crazy crazy that happened recently:

1 - NOT AROD. Nope - not when Roberto Alomar might have full-blown AIDS n (and it might cost him $15 million). Holy balls.

2 - ARod admits to steroid use within the friendly confines of a Peter Gammons interview . . . not that I don't love Gammons (it's borderline creepy) but it wasn't exactly a hard-hitting interview. Still, it makes perfect sense with ARod's purported personality defects - however, it's just one more unfortunate data point that shows Jose Canseco's giant, empty head might have been more right than wrong. Sucks.

3 - Marvin Miller totally flips his shit about the leaked "confidential" samples . . . dude's older than Utahraptor but he's still out kicking, and he's totally correct. Just unreal to hear the only voice of reason from a 91-year-old guy, who probably heard the news on the latest wax grammophone pressing that he picked up on his way home from getting a phosphate at the lunch counter.

4 - In a new book, Manny's wife blames the 64-year-old Red Sox clubhouse attendant for their altercation . . . apparently, the old guy was rude to poor ol' Manny. I mean . . . seriously?

5 - BP's early PECOTA standings have the AL East as the best division in the history of the Planet Earth, with the Sox winning 98, the Yankees 96, the Rays 93, the Jays 81 and the lowly Orioles outhitting every team in the league with a team OPS of .780. The Angels, meanwhile, project to finish sub-.500.\

6 - David Berman breaks up the Silver Jews for no apparent reason, then goes on an absolute tirade against his father, who is apparently a big-time tobacco/fatty foods/other unhealthy shit lobbyist. Wow.

7 - Chris Brown beats the shit out of Rhianna. Note to self: don't beat women. Additional note to self: don't tank career on aggravated misdemeanors . . . rob a bank or something, shoot heroin into a child's eyeballs, whatever. If you're losing (potentially) tens of millions of dollars, go big, you know?

...

453 - This is totally awesome.

On the NL Cy Young Award -

As first reported by my inexplicably Mormon-loving compatriot (via Facebook, your outlet to the WORLD!), the NL voters definitely got the Cy Young right, ignoring Won/Loss records (somewhat) and going with Tim Lincecum, the only professional athlete whose ass I could probably kick. Now, the strikeouts (A SHITLOAD) sell themselves, as does the sterling ERA, but there's more to the story, as Baseball Prospectus shows us below (click to see the full stats):



SNLVAR is shorthand for, essentially, support-neutral wins above replacement - i.e. how many more wins Lincecum provided his team in an environment devoid of the Pol Pot-level frightening run support Tiny Tim received from the Giants this year. The Giants, remember started a SS opening day that had never put up an OPS above .660 . . . in AA ball. This would be the equivalent of me subbing for a chess Grand Master in a tournament, or me getting Matt Jarmon to take the LSAT for me. LOVE YOU MATTY!

Anyway, the important things to note are that, by really any objective measurement from RA+ (64% above average for Lincecum, 60% for Santana) to SNLVAR, Lincecum put up better numbers while facing approximately equivalent competition (if you haven't yet, click on the image above, and check out Opponent's OPS - now check out the guys in the AL East . . . wow). The NL East simply wasn't good enough to make up the difference in either raw or adjusted numbers between Lincecum and anybody else, but especially not Santana.

Check out Cliff Lee's numbers, though - he's the odds-on favorite to win, and rightfully so . . . hopefully, in a similar season to the NL (where the top teams' top pitchers were markedly worse than the absolute cream of the crop), Lee can pull it out in the AL, and we'll feel all giddy and progressive, like the reverse Bradley Effect from a few days ago. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Just don't yell at C - he's sensitive, you know.

Genuflect at the Altar of Small Sample Size

Today, the Twins and White Sox will gather to play a 163rd game - a one-game playoff for the entirety of the AL Central, the baseball equivalent of the Golden Goal but minus the open racism and flopping and Brazilian dudes with one name and Hope Solo is a lesbian too. Sorry, got a little out of control on the soccer analogy. Won't happen again.

The White Sox won the coin flip (even though Minnesota won the season series), so the game is at US Cellular - undoubtedly, this is an advantage for the White Sox, as both teams show larger-than-average home/road splits (likely because the White Sox can't do anything except hit homers, and the Twins play in a fucking putt-putt course with a baggy on top). Indeed, AccuScore lists the White Sox at a 62% predicted winning percentage, white BP lists the Sox as a 57/43 favorite. Either way you slice it, it's likely that a coin flip made the White Sox a 3:2 favorite in this game. Seems pretty fair, in a Shawshank sort of way.

The most interesting part, at least for me (NOTE: I'm stupid), is how this is explained by the media. The ESPN article above completely ignores everything we know about small-sample historical stats between a specific batter and pitcher - namely, that they aren't predictive over the entirety of MLB. So when ESPN tells us that Mauer and Morneau have shitrocked John Danks (hitting .667 in 12 ABs and .438 in 16 ABs, respectively), that seems pretty impressive . . . except for the fact that it is completely and wholly irrelevant beyond the player himself 'feeling good' entering today.

Additionally, Danks has had a great year . . . except for against the Twins at Chicago. His ERA on the year sits at 3.47, an ERA+ of 132 - but in four starts in Chicago against the Twins, his ERA is 7.45. Sounds pretty rough, right? Well, it's not - in three starts against Tampa (a markedly better team than the Twins), Danks has an ERA of 1.86 and a K/BB ratio of 5.25:1. We're playing the small-sample size game here, and it's eerily similar to falling down the bar skank ladder at closing time - at some point, you're just grasping for something to entertain. There's not much to learn here.

So why the (relatively) big advantage for the White Sox? Well, let's start with the easy one - Nick Blackburn kind of sucks. Now, his ERA+ of 101 is essentially league-average, but it's really not all that indicative of how well he's pitched. His ERA of 4.14 is bolstered by what professionals refer to as a "butt load" of unearned runs, as his RA is 4.86. His peripherals state that's much closer to what his ERA should look like - while his 3:1 k/bb ratio is serviceable, he's striking out less than 5 guys per 9IP. That's flaccid, Jamie Moyer (or Raphael Palmeiro, if you'd prefer a Viagra joke) territory - and without the 'guile' or move the NL that kept Moyer upright. As a result, his xFIP is more like 4.80.

So how is Blackburn doing it? According to Guillen after his win last week, the simple answer is "luck" (I believe Ozzie actually noted that Blackburn was "fucking terrible" and "didn't have shit" as well). As much as it sucks to say it, Ozzie's probably right. It appears Blackburn has gotten a little lucky on balls in play, with a BABIP of .314 but an unusual GB/FB/LD split, with 21% of all balls in play as line drives and a whooping 45% as groundballs. This means that his expected BABIP should be closer to .340. He's also benefitted from a good number of infield pop-ups, rare for a guy with a 1.3 GB/FB ratio. He's an enigma - and he's likely getting lucky, as his past numbers and "stuff" don't seem to reflect such an extreme split. As a result, his HR/G is way low, even though an average number of fly balls are going for homers.

So what to look for tonight? Well, in short, home runs. If Blackburn can get a few strikeouts from the free-swinging Sox (Alexei Ramirez last took a walk when Fidel was still alive, and the team as a whole has more hackers than gov.sarah@yahoo.com) and continue to get ground balls, the Twins will be well on their way, even though their defensive efficiency is way down from the recent past. Most likely, Blackburn will give up a couple of longballs into the shallow corners at the Cell, leading to the soft underbelly of the Twins bullpen - a unit with the potential to get Ike and Tina'ed at any given point until Nathan comes in. I wouldn't be particularly surprised to see Nathan throw 2+ innings tonight. Hell, Gardenhire has to play to win - Nathan could actually come in at any point and I wouldn't be too surprised.

The Twins will need Denard Span and Alexi Cassilla to keep up their Prestige-like morphing into Pedroia and Drew, and get on base in front of the lefty twins - Danks shows no real platoon split nor any real special ability to be hard on lefties, so removing Kubel for Cuddyer may actually be a mistake in a ballpark where mistakes land in the gentrified rubble of Cabrini-Green.

It should be a great game, with plenty of small ball and longball to keep both me and Tony LaRussa interested until we both pass out behind the wheel driving home. God bless playoff baseball.

Initial Thoughts on Manny for Bay:

Seriously - if as reported here (or any reasonable derivation), I'll punch a midget in the face then buy a medium Snickers blizzard. Also obviously I'm at work at 2am again. Better analysis tomorrow?

Mondays with Murray

It's funny that my fellow blogger RC posted about Mr. Chass below because, as luck would have it, I just received an email response from the journalist-turned-blogger. Late one night, after a few hours of studying, and feeling a bit loopy, I decided it was as good a time as any to email Mr. Chass. He was one of the sportswriters I looked up to when I was younger, so it had been a bit disheartening to me to see him come out so strongly against the numbers revolution in baseball. After all, hadn't numbers been a part of the game forever? From Babe Ruth's topping 30 home runs in the 1920s, to Cy Young's 511 wins, to the feats of the present day, baseball has been defined by numbers. You hear 3,000, 300, 755, or .400, and you know the context immediately. I talked about how many of the proponents of the numbers game were guys who had played sports at high levels. For example, Billy Beane was a bench player in the majors for a handful of seasons and Paul DePodesta was a two-sport athlete at Harvard.

So, I emailed this to the great baseball writer, and anxiously awaited his reply...

Well, to cut the suspense short, I didn't get much. He essentially repeated his disdain for the new-age numbers, saying that they cheapened the human element of the game. I obviously don't agree, but the guy was cordial enough in his email, and most importantly, I'm just some random law student who isn't going to change his mind anytime soon. I replied, thanking him for his response, and that was that.

I don't know exactly what I was expecting, and I don't know that it was even worth the trouble to send off that email. But, those of us who are a bit more enlightened can hope that things will change, and can be happy that there are sites like Baseball Prospectus, Hardball Times, and others.

Town's the Fish, People are the Barrel . . . BAM! Fish in a Barrel

I know the guys at FJM have been all over this so far (and let's face it, they do it much better than any of us ever could - that's why he's Mose Schrute and I play a lot of slow pitch), but that Pulitzer-winning curmudgeon and noted hater of VORP, Murray Chass, has a new blog located at his website.

There are multiple problems with this, upon first reading. To start, Chass abhors blogs - his "about" page notes that he one time answered a question on Charlie Steiner's radio program with the succinct and loquatious "I hate blogs." Why on Earth this man would then decide he needs to blog is simply mind-bending, but there it is. Second, for the last few years, Chass has decided to identify himself more and more as an "old school" Baseball Man (R). This means he hates new-fangled statistics, choosing instead to let his ancient eyes tell him who can or cannot play. Now, this is a preference, and I won't fault the preference - but it spills over to actual anger. A lot. No, more than that. This dude is essentially the drunk grandfather we've been trying to forget for years.

Well, in his latest blog update, Chass opines for the halcyon days where any retread former player could be guaranteed a job somewhere in baseball, regardless of his actual ability to coach, manage, fill out the uniform or really do anything beyond cashing a paycheck. The subject of this virtual handjob is Don Baylor - from all reports, a good guy, and a pretty solid player in his own right. Baylor win an MVP award and a handful of Silver Slugger awards, and put up a career 118 OPS+ that puts him at 18% better than league average over the course of his career. He put up solid numbers in an offensively depressed era, and if and when Collin and I open the "Hall of Very Good" just outside Schenectady, I want Don Baylor to cut the faux-velvet ribbon.

What I don't want Don Baylor to do is coach my favorite baseball team. Murray, however, disagrees.

Let's start with the core assertions Chass makes:

• Baylor is qualified to manage or at least coach
• Baylor is held back because of his "strong personality"
• Baylor is held back because pansy ass managers don't want him looking over his shoulder
• (Insert vague race claims here)

Baylor is "qualified" to coach like I'm qualified to make out with 19 year old sorority girls - that is, his only "qualification" is that he did it twice before, and not to any great success. We're talking about a guy with a career .476 winning percentage, and whose teams finished higher than third exactly one time. Indeed, the 2nd place finish in 1995 was one of only two times in which his teams outperformed their Pythagorean W/L record (the other being his first season), and most of his teams vaguely underperformed relative to their run scoring and run prevention (although the 2002 Cubs finished a woeful 9 games under their Pythag - simply stunning).

In short, there is really no evidence that Baylor's teams benefitted greatly from his presence. Part of that might be Baylor's "strong personality," which Chass notes repeatedly in his don't-call-it-a-blog-post. Often, top-tier athletes do indeed have "strong personalities" - in fact, it is a characteristic that helps define some of the best athletes. For Chass to note it here, then, I can only draw one conclusion: Baylor is an asshole. When I'm hiring a grown man to deal with other grown men (many of whom are also assholes), I'm pretty sure "asshole" isn't on top of my list of desired attributes. I can only imagine people rich enough to own a baseball team agree, or aren't stupid enough to hire people who disagree.

Beyond that, assuming that other managers don't want Baylor looking over their shoulder, ready to pounce and steal their jobs, seems specious at best. It seems just as likely that current managers don't want a hitting coach or bench coach who a.) hasn't really been successful as a coach anywhere and b.) is likely a huge douche bag. For Chass to (pardon) chastise others for passing over Baylor seems like wishcasting more than reporting, analysis or insight.

In short - why? Why are we pining for Don Baylor, Murray? What the fuck is the point? If you'd taken more than 15 minutes to do even a smidge of research, you'd come up with multiple plausible reasons why Don Baylor isn't on anyone's radar, and probably shouldn't be. Dusty Baker destroys young arms, but at least he's gone to the playoffs in the process. I know numbers are frightening, and this whole Internet thing is making you more and more obsolete, but clinging to dinosaurs such as Don Baylor doesn't help in your drive for relevance.

Gotta love it -

Just a minute ago, the following exchange happened on ESPN's Baseball Tonight post-game:

Steve Berthiaume: "I don't even think you're really a Red Sox fan - you just like to complain."
Buck Showalter: "That's not what this show is for - that's what blogs are for."
Eric Young: "Message boards?"
Showalter: "Blogs and message boards, that's what they're for."

Now, notwithstanding that I heard this as I browsed SoSH's game thread and various off-topic posts containing stark nudity, I thought this was absolutely hilarious, and probably more true than we give it credit for. Since I can't just leave it at that, I'll give you this:

.118/.228/.176 (.404)

If you're playing along at home, that's (AL All Star) Jason Varitek's line over the last 28 days (68 ABs). Punch me in the dick, and expect a longer, whining post about that later.

FATALITY!

In one of my favorite moments, well, ever, RHP Shawn Chacon did what every Phillies fan has wanted to do for years: he pretty much beat the piss out of General Manager Ed Wade. Basically, Chacon had sucked - a 5.04 ERA and 1.51 WHIP with a 1.2:1 K/BB ratio defines "suck" - and was upset that Wade and manager Cecil Cooper had the gall to move him to the bullpen, where he was markedly better last year in Pittsburgh. I'd be pissed, too, if management decided to put me in a much better position to succeed (especially when they're paying me $4 million for the right to suck). Right on, Shawn!

Here's how the man himself described the situation (from Baseball Musings):

"He started yelling and cussing," Chacon said of Wade. "I'm sitting there and I said to him very calmly, 'Ed, you need to stop yelling me. Then I stood up and said 'you better stop yelling at me.' I stood up. He continued and was basically yelling and stuff and was like, 'You need to (expletive) look in the mirror.' So at that point I lost my cool and I grabbed him by the neck and threw him to the ground. I jumped on top of him because at that point I wanted to beat his (butt). Words were exchanged."

Players quickly intervened to separate Wade and Chacon, who remembers being pulled away by backup outfielder Reggie Abercrombie.

Baseball aficionados will note that this is the first outfield assist Reggie Abercrombie's had all year - seriously, the dude sits while Michael Bourn puts up an insane .234/.289/.317 line that doesn't even earn a Jason Bourne joke this early in the morning - but even more important, look at the chain of events according to Chacon:

1. I'm calm
2. I'm calm
3. He's a dick, but I'm calm and stand up.
4. Still standing, still calm.
5. I attempt to kill a man.

Now, there's a fantastic saying in my line of work, related to the horrifying inconsistency and unreliability of eye-witness testimony - the classic "three sides to every story" line, about your side, my side, and the truth. However, Chacon's version of events absolutely makes me giggle to such an extent that I can only pray it's the exact truth - an old, douchey white guy screaming at a grown man earning millions, who pulls a motion-picture glare and warning before dropping the dude? This is why sports are awesome.

Ed Wade is legitimately a terrible GM - I mean, seriously - although his recent moves with the Astros have seemed moderately inspired, given the Astros' awful ownership mandate that they were indeed a contender when almost no measure agreed. In fact, I think he likely deserved an ass kicking, if for no other reason than the fact that he gets jobs over and over again while talented people like Kim Ng are left toiling as assists simply so the "old guard" can recycle the same shitty names over and over again.

However, to have a player listed at 6'3" and 200 lbs. drop the man over a demotion to the bullpen is just unbelievable - it's Latrell Sprewell all over again, but moving into the front office. Unlike Spre, I can't imagine Chacon will ever get another shot to play - after all, Sprewell was actually something resembling an elite talent at the time, while Chacon may define "fungible" - but this sets a new tone for clubhouses everywhere. Closed-door meetings will have beefy security guards, and office doors will be locked. Combine this with Milton Bradley attempting to attack an opposing team's announcer, and you're not even safe if you work upstairs. Stat nerds, beware - you might be able to statistically prove a player sucks, but don't say it out loud (or on a blog) or your ass will be choke-slammed.

This is, coincidentally, why the Blue Jays now cannot trade for Adam Dunn either way - he'd tear Ricciardi limb from limb. Now there's a limited no-trade clause.

It's Schadenfreude, Bitches!

If there's anything those wacky Germans have done to make our lives infinitely better, other than (obviously) giving idiots the ultimate endgame to any online discussion, it would have to be the concept of Shadenfreude, allowing me a justification for my near-constant reveling in the difficulties, downfalls and disasters befalling others.

Well, Milwaukee fans, welcome to the shit show that is Eric Gagne circa today. While the Brews eventually pulled out the game in the 10th (War Plan Orange, anyone?), it was not before Kosuke Fukudome played Admiral Yamamoto to Gagne's USS Oklahoma,
rocking a 3-run bomb in the bottom of the 9th in his first MLB game. Fukudome went 3-for-3, accounting for all of the Cubs' offense.

The Fukudome signing was an inspired move by the Cubs, to be sure, but most projections show The Admiral (as I will now fruitlessly refer to him for about 3 weeks, until I am beaten by everyone I watch games with) as someone with about 15 HR power over the course of the season (but with great OBP - pretty much exactly what CHC needed, to be honest, which is why the signing was stunning at best). However, the $10 million to let Gagne get Pearl Harbor'ed by a moderate-power guy playing his first game against true major-league talent . . . well, that's not so much a great move. After watching dipshit have the confused look in the photo above for the Sox for a couple of months, I couldn't be any happier for the fine cheese-eating, beer-drinking, hedgehog-of-a-wife-fucking denizens of Wisconsin. Love your lineup, hate your closer, dudes - enjoy the 85-win season and underplaying your Pythagorean record by about 5 games (or, the difference between yourselves and the Cubs).

In other notes, Ben Sheets looked great, Josh Willingham needs to be on your fantasy radar if you're looking for off-the-shelf power in the OF/UTIL slots after taking Johan Santana deep (and with a solid PECOTA projection), the Giants may never score another run, trade Jim Thome immediately if you find someone silly enough to want him, and Chris B. Young is obviously on pace for 162 HRs, with a .250 OBP and nearly 500 strikeouts - and, really, only the HR number seems completely unreasonable (and not even by that much). By the way, I drafted him before the 6th round in a bunch of fantasy drafts - I would make out with the guy if I got the chance. He's Adam Dunn with stolen bases, and without hilarious quotations about being the most attractive All Star. He's the evolutionary Rob Deer, except he can actually play defense, run, whatever. It's an exciting time for Three True Outcomes devotees.

Thank God for baseball season - one day in, and I'm already stoked.

Not That There's Anything Wrong With That

From the "Seriously? Seriously." files - it appears Astros 2B Kaz Matsui will be out for a few days . . . with an anal fissure. That's pretty awesome of Rotoworld to let us know that a fissure is "an unnatural crack or tear in the anus skin" - this simultaneously lets us know that there are, apparently, natural cracks/tears in the anus from which the fissures must be separated, and heads off any easy "DOCTOR I HAVE A CRACK IN MY ASS TOO!" jokes at the pass. Truly inspired journalism.

I can't imagine how you even approach the trainer with that one - I mean, seriously, what does that even feel like? I guess I can see how anal tearing would prevent a good pivot at the ol' keystone, sure - I just can't even imagine broaching the topic with the trainers, especially if I didn't speak English. Can you make international signs, charade or mimic something like "my anal passage is shredded" or "I'm pooping a LOT of blood, and it is frightening me"?

That's without any conjecture as to how you, y'know, tear up your anus. There is some precedent for this situation among Japanese players (note: that's a joke), but regardless, it's good to know that soothing balm is on its way to solving Matsui's "issue" . . . and while I don't want this to turn into a nature vs. choice debate (mostly because people on the "choice" side of that debate make me want to murder a hobo), I don't think it's quite fair to say this has the potential to go "chronic." Let's keep it neutral, Rotoworld - nice and neutral. I cannot WAIT for someone to draft him in any upcoming fantasy drafts. Holy crap I'm excited.

ASIDE

If anyone caught Bob Knight on ESPN last night discussing the NCAA tournament, it was a pure shitshow. Knight took pains to refer to himself as a "consultant," in an attempt to separate himself from the "media" he spent years hating. What a nightmare - the guy has become who he hated, and now has to separate himself from it on TV - all the while being reminded (by the host, no less) that he is now indeed a member of the "idiot" media.

I don't think I've seen self-loathing like this since Sybil - it makes a Woody Allen movie look like Stuart Smalley's self-help group. Just unreal.

Learning is Fundamental

To kick off the fantasy moneymaking season for 2008, I wanted to look back at last year's big keeper-league draft, to try to point out places where I could perhaps make an improvement going into this year, and just generally giving retrospective opinions on the entire deal. Also, since this was technically my worst fantasy finish since Teapot Dome, my little ass probably should hit the books, since even the goofiest bastards have 24/7 access to (usually shitty, but still existent) fantasy advice.

My original interpretation of the draft is located here, with some piss-poor analysis that I probably did while slightly hung over at work. I finished fourth in the regular season, then lost a quarterfinal game and punted the rest of the playoffs for draft position (unsuccessfully, I might add - 6th overall). It sucked.

The first five picks were my 5 "keepers" - which, clearly, became an unmitigated disaster after the unfortunate death of Jason Bay's talent (and knee cartilage), Joe Mauer thankfully donating some of his knee to try to help Mr. Bay (which was an unmitigated failure, on par with "Operation: Nail Freshman Girls" at my Bay State brownstone in 2000) and collapsing like Tacoma Narrows in the process, and BJ Ryan's elbow exploding just four short months too early.

The lesson here is pretty clear - sometimes, players will just slip, like Bay. Mauer's injury was moderately predictable, and he might have been a reach in the 4th round anyway, while for all of Ryan's superb stats and peripherals, he's still a closer, and we know the rule: never draft a closer high.

Luckily, I was able to resurrect the draft by pseudo-keeping Adam Dunn with my 6th round pick (making this the 7th consecutive season of watching Big Donkey be my most valuable terrible outfielder - he is sick in this league because it uses OBP instead of BA), so we'll count that as a keeper, which still gives me a C- overall. I must improve this year - luckily, I have four no-brainers for keepers (Wright, Howard, Fielder and Dunn), along with the potential to either keep Granderson or pick up the best player not kept by the remaining teams with my 5th-rounder (which will usually yield a 3rd-round talent, as dudes keep man-crushes instead of the best players).

The most striking problem with my draft was almost certainly my high-risk strategy for pitching, which relied on old guys with breakdown potential (Schilling, Wagner) and young guys with high-risk projections (Bush, Reyes). These guys ate me up, while the more-intelligent risks of buying low on Penny and Escobar worked masterfully and carried my team through most of the season (along with Randy Wolf's first half).

The lesson is easy: work harder to diversify, and keep a solid selection of pitching around. There's no reason to overpay for a mid-range guy (even Dan Haren counts here this year), but while there's no need to be a risk-adverse pussy, it is important to keep some reliable guys on hand and dodge an entirely youth-oriented team because of the dangers of pitching projection in general.

The "closing off the closers" strategy worked exceptionally poorly, as most teams were unwilling to trade even bottom-end starters for closers, and the point in which such trades make the most sense (at the first half of the season) for you are the times when people are most adverse to trades (because of waiver-wire enticement). It's kind of like dominating the Golden Tee machine at the bar - it's a great idea for what it's worth, but you can't parlay it into getting laid, so you have to make sure your priorities are actually aligning with your strategy. As it ended, I wound up with a great closer system (with 4 guys), including exactly one of the closers (Wagner) that I started with, and missed a LOT of potential value guys at the bottom of the draft (FUCK YOU BRANDON PHILLIPS-SLASH-FRANCHISE). I will likely avoid this strategy, even if I get as much cooperation as I did in that draft.

One other quick point: while it's easy to play for guys moving positions to try to capitalize on hard-to-fill positional eligibility, these guys often have an adjustment period. Hall killed me here, even being SS-eligible. BJ Upton appears to be the exception here, but it's worth noting going forward.

Essentially, I completely mismanaged risk in this draft, and left myself open to exactly what happened: injuries decimating my team in places where I could not handle them. I thought I had a nice balance of risk and upside, but that could not have been further from the truth in hindsight. Boo fucking hoo.

The Dangers of Pretty Things

One of the most bizarrely difficult issues for sports fans to agree about or reconcile comes in that grand issue of "clutch" - and, while I won't open that can of worms today, it is certainly part of a larger intangible issue that fascinates people in general: response to difficult circumstances. From US Magazine to The Hills to news reports about surviving attempted decapitation, people love to see others cope - even if the coping strategy results in dismal, bloody, excruciating failure. Shit, some would say especially when it ends in massive, bowel-clearing failure.

One of the best illustrations in recent memory came in Juno - while a well-done movie by almost any regard, one scene stands head and shoulders above the rest. After Jason Bateman's character completes the 90' turn into creepdom and Juno realizes the shit just hit the fan, she drives down the road, ultimately pulling the minivan over to break down and cry on the side of the road. Basically, the cut-and-dried, simple, perfect solution she crafted to escape her shitshow pregnancy has just disintegrated into disaster.

Really, this is a great point - we often become enamored with things that are easy or "perfect" solutions to existing problems. This can lead to sloth. Think of how many times you've seen someone select the least-horrible of a series of shitty options, only to work hard and find that the results far outpaced anyone's expectations. Now, think of how many times slam-dunk setups have failed miserably, only to result in black tar heroin and concomitant residency under bridges or in bus station men's rooms (or, like, just bad stuff happening).

After last week's revelation that Curt Schilling's biceps tendon looks like "three strands of spaghetti" there is a small chance that the Boston Red Sox have fallen for The Danger of Pretty Things - that solution that seems so easy that it's a no-brainer, although the fallout of its failure would be much more drastic than the solution's elegance would let on.

The Sox starting rotation would have set up beautifully - run out Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Lester and Wakefield, most of whom will need at least a few weeks on the DL. Keep Buchholz in Pawtucket, on a strict innings limit of 5IP/start, ready to fill gaps as needed. Get Buchholz ~120 IP in the majors, keeping him around his 180IP limit for the season (and, hopefully, keep him in AAA until mid-May, so his service clock gains another year before free agency).

Now, though, there's a problem - either Buchholz starts the year with the big club, which would give the team the best pitcher in the group but one with a strict innings limit because he is still right within the injury nexus, or you run out there with Julian Tavarez, who put up as heroic a season of 5.25 ERA ball as has ever come from a man in such dire need of plastic surgery. There are external options, but given there are about 5 days before pitchers and catchers report, that field is winnowed to the bloated corpse of Bartolo Colon (who reportedly couldn't hit 90 in winter ball, and was making the 6th inning look as impossible as scaling K2), the consistent mediocrity of Kyle Lohse (who is certainly no solid bet to perform better than Tavarez), or paying Billy Beane's mortgage for Joe Blanton, a 200IP workhorse who looks oddly like John Daly.

The rotation solution was so elegant that its downsides become almost stark in contrast - and while the "problems" are really pretty nice to have (the Sox still have one of, if not the best, rotations in baseball), the current scenario is simply way worse for the team. Interestingly, there are other places where this might even be more true - any injury to Lowell or Youkilis will give a couple hundred ABs to Sean Casey, who should be good for an OPS+ of about 92, and corner-outfield issues would immediately either force Bobby Kielty into the lineup, or require an unreal LF/CF combo of Ellsbury and Crisp, turning the Red Sox into some bizarre version of the '86 Cardinals. The bullpen isn't really set up for losing Papelbon for any amount of time, unless Manny Delcarmen continues to make strides - and I say this as someone who wholeheartedly rejects the myth of the closer.

Now, I don't mean this to be a doomsday-scenario, chicken-little'ing of the Sox this season. Indeed, the Red Sox are still the likely favorites to win the AL, and should be considered such by a fairly good margin. While Lowell will likely never repeat his BABIP/LD%-increase-fueled career year, and while Pedroia and Youkilis have likely shown near-peak capability already, a moderate rebound from Manny and Drew would more than offset this, and getting an .800 OPS from CF while staying within -5 of Crisp's defense would be a remarkable upgrade. It's an incredibly well-rounded squad, one which is built to survive through many different styles of baseball, and built to win both in the regular season (with power bats and lineup depth) and post season (the "secret sauce", run prevention, very strong front-end starters).

No, let's not lament or cry for the Sox just yet - while losing a legit hero in Schilling, his PECOTA projection was for 125IP at 4.18 ERA, which passes the smell test - but it seemed worth noting that the ultimate failure of the Schilling scenario, at least to this point, really indicated a "Pretty Things" problem to the best possible effect. Interestingly, if Schilling's rehab actually works (and Dr. Morgan obviously thinks that will not be the case), he can come back after the All-Star Break and contribute important innings down the stretch, resting all of the pitchers for a few weeks. This, my friends, is pretty much the definition of the tantalizing idea that might just be too seductive for its own good. Once again, I've fallen for the Danger.

When is Chuck Knoblauch the same as Curt Schilling?

Well, it's that time of the year again - the Fed makes an "emergency" rate cut, the government pushes out an inconsequential $150 billion that is effectively an unwanted short-term loan to the middle class, and the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform has determined that they should be focusing mostly on baseball's steroid "problem" rather than any of the other issues they could possibly examine.

In short, this is a baffling and putrid move on the part of Congress - a move that seems much more apt to produce sound bites from congressmen than from baseball players.

To start, let's get some things out of the way. First, this is not implicitly a waste of the government's time or taxpayer money - the powers of the COGR are wide-reaching, allowing investigation of really anything that might affect anyone or anything dealing with Federal law in even the least strict sense. Actually, this sort of investigation could be one of the better uses of the Committee - there is no doubt that Congress has power and influence in the way that investigative journalists do not, and should there be actual time and effort put into determining the scope and scale of baseball's PED issues, the COGR would probably be the most effective body to perform that investigation.

However, if you've spent even a modicum of time on this issue, it should be starkly obvious that "time and effort" have fallen victim to "pomp and circumstance" at just about every turn. Watching Henry Waxman and Tom Davis at work for just a few minutes at a time during the hearings with Bud Selig and former Senator George Mitchell was enough to expose the committee's intent: to put on a show, to decry drugs as "bad" rather than design a plan to stop them, and basically waste everyone's time for the benefit of the men and women of Congress alone.

This is really an excuse for the members of the House committee to proselytize from the podium, get air time, rant and rave to a camera and then peddle themselves as "difference makers" during their next reelection campaign. Baseball's testing program is on par or superior to any league out there, and its penalties are more severe - football, by contrast, has a legitimate drug problem, with stars caught every year (see: Merriman, Shawn) and a testing program that is notoriously full of holes and pre-test warnings to star players, by reputation, anecdote and evidence.

The committee chair first, then the minority leader, stood up and delivered a ridiculous sermon on the dangers of drugs, while giving uncited and laughably uninformed "statistics" on drug use for high school and college athletes. Next, both drew an explicit connection between professional baseball players and use by youth, and specifically minors. Never mind that most of the minors using performance-enhancing substances are not baseball players - football has, by far, the more serious problem, by all reports - or that the true 'enablers' are generally not pro athletes, but rather the parents who fund the purchases, or the coaches who look the other way in search of more and better wins, or etc.

The finger-wagging on the part of Congress in this situation is laughable at best, and insidiously dangerous at worst. Announcing the baseball situation as a "problem" while focusing on the stars and not the majority of users (who are, in general, failed scrubs or the injured), all the while making innuendo that the problem is worse than the testing indicates because of the specter of HGH (which has never been shown to actually increase muscle mass or athletic performance), really gives children the actual license and rationale for using performance-enhancing substances. Think about it like this: you advertise that steroids are dangerous, because you might just get really good at something and make millions of dollars doing it. There is a legitimate incentive to use PEDs - instead, why aren't we focusing on the still-minute chances of success (read: money), while showing the health and legal risks that neatly offset the ludicrously small chance for any given high school star to even sniff a professional paycheck?

The situation only becomes more laughable now that players are being subpoenaed, yet again, to appear before the COGR. The last time, we were treated to a total implosion of Mark McGuire's Hall of Fame status, the hypocrisy of Rafael Palmeiro's "inspired" finger-wagging, and one Curt Schilling looking incredibly out of place. Schilling, the same guy who regularly shows up to spring training with a dome belly and a winter's worth of Cheese-Its and Mountain Dew Gamer Fuel lingering around his ham hocks, was invited to sit on a panel with those suspected or accused of steroid use.

This time around, we get Chuck Knoblauch filling the same role, albeit in a completely different fashion. Indeed, Knoblauch has been explicitly linked to performance-enhancing substances in the Mitchell Report, although without the canceled-check "certainty" of those outed by Kurt Radomsky or others. Still, it seems odd that of the 80-some people named in the report, those invited to testify are essentially from the Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s: Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Knoblauch. One of these individuals does not fit; one has never had the stature of the others . . . and that one is, in fact, Roger Clemens.

So why do we have Pettitte (who has admitted use to recover from injury, certainly not a pernicious deed but questionable and likely illegal nonetheless) and Knoblauch (who has only tenuous ties to steroid use by any barometer) speaking in front of Congress? Likely, the goal is to put pressure on Clemens, just as the FBI put pressure on Bonds, ultimately resulting in an indictment for perjury late last year.

If the goal is to only attack the game's biggest stars, aren't we falling into the same trap I mentioned earlier - namely, that public perception of the problem will be much more dangerous than if we simply examine the root reality of the situation? Knoblauch's situation should stand on its own merits, for better or worse - if he used at the end of his career to attempt to prolong it, this would be a wonderful time to cut the bullshit anger and looking down the nose, and instead state publicly that his attempt failed, and the health risks were not worth the effort (not to mention the money). If, instead, Knoblauch is merely there to get grilled about others in the locker room and the so-called "steroid culture" (a culture propagated and facilitated, for the most part, by ownership), why even pretend? Doesn't this do more harm than good?

The COGR examination of baseball (and ignorance or disregard for any other sports, the reality of modern baseball's testing program, hard statistical evidence, or even the potential harm of their own actions framing the problem incorrectly) is quickly evolving into onanism. The hearings are often a masturbatory exercise for those who have never heard of "replacement level," or the hardship of playing 162 games in 180 days for ten years - in short, Congress has not taken the time nor put in the effort to fully understand the problem's roots, or its realistic extent or issues. It's no surprise we see Roger Clemens on the stand, instead of the real problems - players like Larry Bigbie, Howie Clark, Adam Riggs and even Eric Gagne. These are the players that are getting the benefit - the marginal guys who wind up making a few bucks (or a ton of bucks, in the case of Gagne). Let's expose this charade for what it is - an unproven method to reach incredibly unlikely heights in a difficult, tense profession.

And that's without even talking about the HGH fascination, for which we have zero proof of any positive effects on baseball players beyond possible reduction in recovery from injury. It's insane.

JD Drew did not rape your mother

Among other bad things, JD Drew does not get as dirty as some fuckfaced retards (COUGH COUGH) would enjoy - he also takes a lot of pitches, almost never swears on the field, practices wikka, has never (to my knowledge) railed a stripper or dragged Jacoby Ellsbury's drunken ass off a bar stool at Fanuiel, and went home to be with his 18-mo.-old son instead of getting wasted on the mound with a naked Papelbon last week.

He did not, however, rape your mother, nor did he rape the Red Sox out of $14 million.

After the dust settled, JD Drew finished with a season-long composite of .270/.373/.423 (for a .796 OPS) - this is not exactly worth $14 million on the whole, but this compares similarly with such stalwart players as Jermaine Dye (who some idiots wanted to replace Drew at the trading deadline), Miguel Tejada and Michael Young. By most measurements Drew played decent defense (with the exception of Zone Rating, which is always f-ed for Fenway's bizarre RF) to offset the positional issues. He was worth about 4.6 wins according to WARP3, and was certainly a positive contributor for the Sox this season.

More striking, Drew has amped it up in September, to the tune of .342/.454/.618 (OPS of 1.072). In the second half, he went .286/.379/.462 (OPS .841), which includes a brutal month of July. If you take away his May and July bed-poopings, he played four months of .900+ OPS baseball - Manny Ramirez has an OPS of just about .900 exactly this season. When you look at that division banner and think about the Yankees' inevitable run this month, you have JD Drew to thank for helping fend off the Scourge's Surge.

With the usual adjustment to the AL, as well as the severe personal issues Drew has gone through, this season and his hot streak heading toward the playoffs should be viewed as a massive positive - booing this man should result in a punch in the anus, when Certified Hard Workers (r) like Trot Nixon struggle to sub-.700 OPS numbers in a platoon role.

So the next time Simmons makes a cheap crack about Drew wilting in a prime role or taking a called third strike think about this:

Drew's OPS for the year: .796
RISP: .784 (league: .780/RS: .829)
RISP/2 out: .831 (league: .753/RS: .792)
Tie game: .863 (league: .764/RS: .825)
Close/late: .763 (league: .723/RS: .745)
Plus, Drew is third on the team in WPA for hitters - if you don't know what that is, bitch you better ask somebody . . .

Then, after properly smart-ifying yourself, inform them kindly that they should a.) eat uncooked pork and get trichinosis and/or b.) stop being the Massholiest of all Massholes, and embrace a guy who has worked hard and fought through 2 very tough months to be a productive player who may wind up the centerpiece of the Sox playoff run. If nothing else, his September indicates he could be the middle-of-the-order fixture the Sox wanted him to be for years to come.

JD Drew is not a problem on the 2007 Red Sox. Should the Sox get some breaks, I fully expect to see Drew on the mound, dancing with Paps and looking like these guys:

Observations made at Yankee Stadium

So yesterday I was back at the buzzsaw that is Yankee Stadium with three Yankee fans in tow. Scary huh? Yes, very scary.

Some thoughts:

1.) There weren't as many Red Sox fans as last time I was there. I was kind of surprised, I thought more would come out of the woodwork to do a little gentle ribbing of Yankee fans.

2.) There were a ton more of those "26-6" shirts. Yes, I am well aware that the Yankees won 26 World Series and the Red Sox have only won 6. Insecure much?

3.) Most fans in the upper deck seemed more intent on watching a fucking squirrel on top of the foul pole. I swear they were cheering louder for the squirrel than anything else. The morons in front of me literally had a 20 minute conversation about the decision making process of the squirrel and when it would come down. I swear to God. I was quietly hoping it would jump to it's death.

Seriously, the fans didn't really seem into the game. As noted by the guy next to me, "I can't even get a Boston Sucks chant going". Geez, what is the world coming to nowadays?

4.) J.D. Drew hates the following things: America, freedom, puppy dogs, swinging the bat, etc.

Seriously, I hope he dies in a fire. He sucks so bad that he made Manny make that error. (Note: Not really, Manny was also distracted by the squirrel. After the game he chased it around the field for two hours.)

5.) After Johnny Damon hit his home run, one of the moron fans in the row in front of me turned and actually said:

"He used to play for you!"

Wow. Did he think I didn't know? Was I supposed to be surprised? Seriously, that is the best you can come up with? With cutting wit like that he can probably work for YES. I'm pretty sure that is more intelligent than anything Michael Kay has said in at least two years.

6.) Another gem from the fans in front of me, who I started to suspect might be mentally retarded:

After Dice-K gave up a run in the first: "I'm glad we didn't pay him all that money. Geez, what a waste."

The utter stupidity of that statement almost made blood shoot of my nose. Actually Kei Igawa stopped selling peanuts and smacked him in the back of the head. I think that guy should work for the Yankee front office. Actually I would give him a letter of recommendation.

7.) Joba is a stupid name. Where in the fuck are parents coming up with these names? I'd rather abort my child than have my wife name it Joba.

So that was my adventure at Yankee Stadium. As always, the fans showed class and intelligence. To quote Rodney Dangerfield, "Lovely boy -- Now I know why tigers eat their young."

Oh noes! Blog Neglect

So yeah, seems like no one has been updating this lately. I am going to try really hard to do a better job at least updating it with something once a day, even though no one reads it, nor should they.

Here is what you missed if you live under a rock like that guy in the sprint commerical:

1.) A giant headed monster who hates you broke the homerun record. I was sleeping when it happened, then when I saw the highlights on ESPN and I was just happy that Pedro Gomez could see his family again. Not really, I actually hope Pedro kills himself.

2.) The Yankees are creeping closer to the Red Sox. At the moment, four games out. We picked up Eric Gange and he promptly shit the bed and the bed next to him. I'll be over here banging my head against the wall. Feel free to join.

3.) Michael Vick continues to be fucked. Proper fucked, as he is suspended the entire year.

4.) I went home to Arizona to visit the folks. My dad has his first drink at noon. Good for him, I want to retire.

5.) I saw The Ten and Bourne Ultimatum. Matt Damon rocks some shit, and somewhere Ben Affleck masturbates while crying to an old copy of the Good Will Hunting screenplay. The Ten has flashes of brilliance followed by sheer oddness that aren't that funny. Note: Don't let anyone tell you that the prison rape sketch isn't funny. They are lying, prison rape is always hilarious.

6.) Mitt Romney is gaining steam and apparently Hil-Rod is as well. Both frighten me on some level. Sorta like those face grabbers in Aliens. I'm pretty sure Mitt Romney has some secret plan to attach to my face a lay Mormon eggs in my chest, then on election day it will explode from chest and vote republican. The horror.

More to come.....

The Bronx is Burning

I just watched the first episode of "The Bronx is Burning" on ESPN. I waited a day to watch mostly because the Home Run Derby ran longer than Roots. Jesus, did that really need to take 3 hours? To steal from Lewis Black, the Home Run Derby is like candy corn. I always forget I hate it until I make the mistake of partaking in it again. Fuck is it boring.

Anyways, if you don't know I'm not exactly a Yankee fan. I do have a strange fascination with George Steinbrenner. Maybe it is because of he was portrayed on Seinfeld or the fact that I can't believe such an unbelievable asshole hasn't been shot in the face, but I get a kick out of the guy. So I figured I would tune in to see what Oliver Platt (who is awesome in Huff) could do with the role. I'd have to say he does a decent turn as Georgie, even if he kinda reminds me of Baby Huey. Hopefully it gets more insane as it goes on.

All I can say for now is that there are the pieces of a good miniseries in there. The story and the characters are more than you can ask for. I guess the way the shot it just makes it look pretty cheap. I dunno if ESPN decided to spend all their money doing promos for "Who's Now?" (oh fuck you Stuart Scott, fuck you in the eye), but the production values are a bit lacking.

I'm hoping it picks up a little bit in later episodes, especially with Da Jesus as Billy Martin. I guess we have to see and hope that Jason Giambi doesn't show up again as a cab driver.

Jackie Robinson Day

Yesterday was Jackie Robinson Day, you know if you didn't see the 4 billion bits on Sports Center about it or if you didn't know why everyone was wearing No. 42 during all MLB games.

I think the most interesting side story going into the day was the dwindling number of African-Americans playing the sport today. Apparently it isn't as cool as playing basketball or football. Seems some people think that Jackie would be upset by this. I don't think so. I don't think Jackie just opened the door in baseball for African-Americans, but for all minorities. I think he would be happy to see the wide range of ethnicities that play baseball today and the popularity the sport is gaining all over the world. Plus, the wide range of African American coaches (which was Jackie's final gripe with the major leagues).

Plus, I'm sure all the festivities pissed the hell out of Jeff Kent and Mike Mussina. Oh, the racism is killing me.

Pictures = 1k words and all . . .