Monday, August 27, 2007

Understanding in a FFL trainwreck

OK - the dust has settled, and I'm finally able to discuss the hot mess that was my first Fantasy Football draft of the year. I'm also going to attempt to post more here, and this is as good a start as any . . . it's that time of year, to make money off retards (aka "friends").

The squad (obviously "Bad Newz Kennels") shaped up as such, starting with the #5 overall pick in a 12-team money league with only about 2 real decent players and basically standard scoring with a slight emphasis on TD passes (QB yardage could also be huge, but tough to exploit):

1. (5) Joseph Addai RB
2. (20) Maurice Jones-Drew RB
3. (29) Chad Johnson WR
4. (44) Lee Evans WR
5. (53) Donald Driver WR
6. (68) Philip Rivers QB
7. (77) Chris Cooley TE
8. (92) LenDale White RB
9. (101) Vernand Morency RB
10. (116) D.J. Hackett WR
11. (125) Donte' Stallworth WR
12. (140) Alge Crumpler TE
13. (149) Stephen Gostkowski K
14. (164) Byron Leftwich QB
15. (173) Oakland DEF

Note that at #5 I had the choice of Gore or Addai - although Pro Football Prospectus's KUBIAK ratings have Gore #1 overall (Addai is still top-5), I couldn't pull the trigger, instead choosing the (relatively) steady production that has followed Colts skill players over the last few years. This pick may come back to haunt me.

The lap back essentially made me choose between Jones-Drew and Chad Johnson, which really wasn't difficult considering the league includes scores for special teams TDs to the actual player, and plus I got Ocho Cinco on the way back anyway (because I play with tards - +EV uber alles).

My plan this season in FFL is to go for low-risk players at the top of the draft for RB/WR, then try to take a flier on a QB - the hope was that either McNabb or Vince Young's stupid ass would fall to me in the 5th, which may be slightly greedy, but I know pretty much exactly what I'll get out of Rivers every week so I'm not quite punching myself in the sack (yet).

Also, I want high-variance, high-reward backups as filler - guys like Morency and White are probably only playable against the very worst defenses, but luckily I have a fantastic subscription to to fill me in on when this will happen (COLTS), i.e. the Ron Dayne Corollary.

Hackett and Stallworth are veritable shots in the dark, as I'm not 100% sold on Driver in the WR/RB hole - hopefully one gets hot and I can ship ship mcgipp for a RB in that slot. Matchups are really weak at WR (unless, you know, Champ Bailey), so I've kind of hamstrung myself there, but obviously it will be super easy to cut any of those schmoes for the flavor of the week.

In this league I also made a stark error by not playing for an earlier defense - BAL and CHI outscored all but about 10 players last season by the scoring system we're using, and while neither will repeat that, I should have done a little more homework. Oakland's D should benefit from a craptacular schedule, though, and could be a solid sleeper here. Alternately, I'll just play the "whoever plays the Texans/Browns" game at DEF and should wind up OK.

Many of the ESPN "sleepers" were getting ripped really early - I would read everything on and pay attention, and devalue your own expectations to match. A guy like Lee Evans is somehow undervalued, while (non-rapist) Chris Henry went in the 7th and Vincent Jackson in the 8th.

1 comment:

cseguin said...

Oakland's D - solid choice. I would have chosen Gore, but if I did that, he probably would have broken his fibula in 100 places in week 1.