Friday, December 31, 2010

The Q4 Mixtape - The Assassination of Bad Lil Wayne by the Coward Bangladesh

Download HERE!

(Year-end Best-ofs to come tomorrow-ish?)

1 - Girl Talk - "Triple Double" (download album at - legal!)
2 - Lil Wayne ft. Cory Gunz, "6' 7'"
3 - Shit Robot - "I Found Love (TBD Remix)"
4 - K-Os - "I Wish I Could Believe"
5 - Kanyeeeezeeee - "Lost in the World (ft Bon Iver)"
6 - Robyn - "Dancing on My Own"
7 - Deerhunter - "Coronado"
8 - Tennis - "Marathon"
9 - Ty Segall - "Girlfriend"
10 - Ye - "The Joy (ft Pete Rock and etc)"
11 - Diamond Rings - "You and Me"
12 - Perfume Genius - "Mr. Peterson"
13 - Vampire Weekend - "California English Pt 2"
14 - Girl Unit - "Wut"
15 - Jai Paul - "BTSTU"
16 - Crystal Castles ft. Robert Smith - "Not In Love"
17 - Drake - "Fireworks (Deadboy Slo Mo House Mix)"
18 - Destroyer - "Chinatown"
19 - Fabolous - "You Be Killin Em"
20 - Tonetta - "My Bro" (UNREAL)

Thursday, October 7, 2010

The Q3 Mixtape: RIP Randy Moss (and, Hopefully, Jason Varitek)

It's about that time again . . . this one's slightly more hip hop-heavy than usual because, well, it was kind of a shitty quarter for musics. At least for singles, anyway. Other than the Kanyeezy, that is- he's still ridiculous. What a beating - everything he's done is outrageously good. Download here!

-Cee-lo Green, "Fuck You"
-The-Dream, "Love King"
-Cali Swag District, "Teach Me How To Dougie"
-The Thermals, "I Don't Believe You"
-The Gaslight Anthem, "Bring It On"
-Das Racist, "hahahahaha jk"
-Atmosphere, "The Best Day"
-Curren$sy ft. Mikey Rocks, "The Hangover"
-How to Dress Well ft. Yuksel Arslan, "Decisions"
-The Cool Kids, "Gettin' Flicked"
-Arcade Fire, "Sprawl II (Mountains Beyond Mountains)"
-Chromeo ft. Ezra Koenig, "I Could Be Wrong"
-Jukebox the Ghost, "Half-Crazy"
-Kanyeeze ft. everybody, "Monster" (Really, Nicki Minaj's entire freakout deserves call-out - INCREDIBLE)
-Les Savy Fav, "Sleepless in Silverlake (Acoustic)"
-Menomena, "TAOS"
-Robyn ft. Snoop Dogg, "U Should Know Better"
-Rusko ft. Gucci Mane, "Got Da Groove"
-Superchunk, "Crossed Wires"
-Wavves, "Idiot"
-Mark Ronson ft. Q-Tip, "Bang Bang Bang"

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

30:30 ... 4 Days in October Impresions

It's a frigging overload. Some observations:

-Millar calling out CHB and telling him he'd start G7 at 2B and bat 9th was unreal - "Then you can take back that 'frauds' comment" was beautiful.

-Marriotti's stupid ass saying the Sox were done at every opportunity was wonderful. That wife-beating douche should spend his 40 days of community service shining the 04 trophy and learning how to do some sort of blue-collar profession so the world is never submitted to his shit again.

-The different versions of how Pedro went into the 7th game between Tito and Petey were the least surprising thing ever.

-Schilling's leg looked like the science experiment it was. Unfathomable. He also looked drunk in his interviews, but I'm OK with that.

-Bernie's noodle arm in center played SUCH a huge role, that I'm stunned I didn't recall in hindsight. What a great baseball player (and, reportedly, guy), but that guy wouldn't play CF on our slowpitch team. THROW BETTER YOU DOUCHE.

-Tony Clark's ground-rule double is the single luckiest thing that ever happened. I'm pretty sure ever.

-When you were a kid, you always just knew your heroes would come through, regardless of the situation - whether it was Superman, your dad, some guy in an apocryphal story, or whatever. For a long time, David Ortiz was that guy - you just couldn't imagine he wouldn't rip, wouldn't lose one with the game on the line, wouldn't come through. In hindsight, it's just so, so sick. He was Superman, your dad and Paul Bunyan all rolled into one fat dork who crushed fastballs.

-Calling Schilling "Old Man River" on the plane (and Pokey getting down) was just amazing - that's f-ing Pokey Reese! SERIOUSLY!

-I'm sure others won't get it - but it was one of the best hours I've seen on TV. I couldn't be happier.

<3 RC

Thursday, July 15, 2010

In which people are still people, for better or for worse . . .

It is absolutely Amazing - capital-A "Amazing," and not the banal offhand throw-away lower-case "amazing" tossed off by teenagers and people with nothing to say - Amazing the lengths to which guys will go to cheat at something like slow-pitch softball.

OK - the phenomenon isn't unique to weekend warriors on the softball fields. Guys (and girls) will cheat at literally anything, whether or not there is a tangible reward for success at the end. I'm pretty sure everyone knows this - but still, each and every example shocks me even further, each and every time.

I recently sold a relatively-rare bat online - one whose rarity and desirability are almost entirely driven by teenage girls who use it for high school and AAU/travel ball. This means the high price is actually driven by . . . dad, the guy who requires this specific rare bat to get His Dear Daughter (which is terminology actually used - kill me) the base hits and bombs needed to get a non-scholarship to a third-tier D-1 program. A used, 3-year-old bat goes for more than MSRP when it was new, simply because the belief exists that this bat is magic - this bat will put the individual over the top.

Sure, I'm an asshole for exploiting that system for my own profit (give or take 300% profit, if we practice full disclosure) - but the real inanity came in the offers I received for it. Multiple people offered me "shaved" or otherwise altered bats - bats for beer-league slow pitch that have had material removed from the inside to attempt to illegally increase performance. The smallest-midget theory is now being ass-raped by Godwin's law, resulting in this surreal place where guys will cheat to win a t-shirt.

My lovely girlfriend played in an all-woman's tournament last weekend. There, one of her teammates had an illegal bat tagged by the poor schlub of a woman working the registration desk. She knew the bat wasn't approved for play. She smiled and attempted to hit it - and eventually stopped not out of fear of being caught and being sanctioned, but instead because the swing weight was too heavy.

Sure, I'm cherry-picking from softball - 12 year old kids exploit map hacks and glitches to run up retarded scores in Modern Warfare 2 on the Playstation, and I can't tell you how many cockfaced teens have quit online games of Madden on me simply because I won. It's part of human nature, sadly - but these events, all in succession, really drive home just how ridiculous people can be. Amazing. Big A.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Q2 Music: In Which Big Boi Makes the Cut Because I Said So

Tracks (download link) -

Ariel Pink's Haunted Graffiti - "Round and Round"
Janelle Monae - "Round and Round (ft. Big Boi)"
Crystal Castles - "Baptism"
Flying Lotus - "Do the Astral Plane"
Against Me! - "White Crosses"
Nada Surf - "Love and Anger"
Uffie - "ADD SUV (Armand Van Helden vocal mix)"
Reflection Eternal - "Just Begun (ft. Mos Def and Jay Electronica)"
Juvenile - "Drop That Thing"
Caribou - "Odessa"
Sleigh Bells - "Tell 'em"
Kanyeeeezeee - "Power"
Big Boi - "Daddy Fat Stax"
The National - "Lemonworld"
Jay Electronica - "Exhibit C"
The-Dream - "Yamaha"
Wolf Parade - "Ghost Pressure"
LCD Soundsystem - "I Can Change"
Delorean - "Simple Graces"
Japandroids - "Younger Us"
Sage Francis - "The Best of Times"

Albums That Kept Me Awake and Sweating on Various Airport Tarmacs:
Big Boi - Sir Lucious Left Foot: the Son of Chico Dusty (HOLY BALLS)
Sleigh Bells - Treats
Delorean - Subiza
Against Me! - White Crosses
Crystal Castles - (self-titled)
The National - High Violet
Reflection Eternal - Revolutions Per Minute

Those Which Require More Time But Get A Prospective Thumbs Up:
Eminem - Recovery
Guilty Simpson - OJ Simpson
Ariel Pink's Haunted Graffiti - Before Today
ceo - white magic
Javelin - No Mas
Murs & 9th Wonder - Fornever

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

2010 Q1: There was music.

OK - Instead of piling it all at the end of the year, might as well break it into smaller chunks . . .

Tracks (download here), in no particular order:
-LCD Soundsystem, "Drunk Girls"
-Ted Leo & the Pharmacists, "Bottled in Cork" (ABSURD)
-Yeasayer, "ONE"
-Titus Andronicus, "Titus Andronicus Forever"
-Fang Island, "Life Coach"
-The Hold Steady, "Rock Problems"
-Broken Social Scene, "All to All"
-Pavement, "Gold Soundz" (reissued!)
-Vega, "She's Electric (Vega Italo Dub)"
-Big Boi, "Fo Yo Sorrows (ft. George Clinton)"
-Big Boi, "Shutterbugg" (Yep - there's two, it's worth it)
-Cults, "Go Outside"
-Drake, "Over"
-Blitzen Trapper, "Heaven and Earth"
-Hot Chip, "Take It In"
-Wiley, "Never Be Your Woman (Herve Mix)"
-TI, "I'm Back"
-Surfer Blood, "Take It Easy"

Surfer Blood, Astro Coast
Ted Leo & the Pharmacists, The Brutalist Bricks
Hot Chip, One Life Stand
Titus Andronicus, The Monitor
Vega, Well Known Pleasures
Broken Social Scene, Forgiveness Rock Record
LCD Soundsystem, This is Happening
Fang Island, Fang Island
Vampire Weekend, Contra

Like, Not Love
Love is All, Two Thousand and Ten Injuries
Spoon, Transference
Yeasayer, Odd Blood
jj, jj no. 3
Gonjasufi, A Sufi and A Killer
Freeway & Jake One, The Stimulus Package
Four Tet, There Is Love In You

Friday, March 19, 2010

New Day Rising (Falling [Dying?])


We'll go ahead and start over, since last night was too drunk to walk. Split the night games (push on SDSU, +2u on Wake, -2u on the UT/SDSU over (which was purely based on intoxication) . . . +4u for the tourney. Only one morning bet: +2 on Temple over Cornell at (-3.5).

Jared and I broke even at the casino . . . by which I mean he won a buck and I lost a buck. That's fun. I peed on Prairie Meadows on the way out. Nice forty 12s in a row, assbags.

Our trip to Village Inn this morning was completely uneventful . . . complete with disagreement with the "Did You Know?" that said a majority of people think sharing chocolate pie is the most romantic (answer is obv "Hair Pie"), Troy seeing a condor outside of the restaurant (it's 30 degrees in Iowa), and paying for a $9.95 tab with $12 and getting change back . . . with different 1's than were given to the waitress. Seriously? You didn't get that was a tip?

Also of note: no bloody mary mix at Walmart, Target or Casey's. HyVee was too far away, so we're starting with lovely mixed drinks that aren't bloody marys.

Justin's upstairs bathroom (the kid's bathroom; he's 2) now has toilet paper, so we're back to pooping post-Industrial Revolution. Also, the kid's shower has both shampoo and conditioner - his hair did look silky-smooth though, so who am I to judge?

I couldn't pull the trigger on anything for the UM/Xavier game, but that might be a true pick'em game, and the WVU line looks right (except for, y'know, Morgan State being up 5 right now) . . . We'll see what happens. LOVE GT though, in case any of you feel like printing money at +1.5.



Getting awesome - day 2 is always a wreck, because we start with liquor and you're re-drinking anyway. When you're pre-tarded, it doesn't take long to get into awful mode, and it's happening fast . . . for example, Tony and Troy just got locked up into a pseudo-humping position, where Troy threw some sort of f-ed-up wrist lock on Tony, then at the stalemate proclaimed "This is a weiiiiird situation." It was. It completely was.

During the early session, we had 2 games going, so TV3 featured an accidental change to infomercials . . . luckily it was "Brazilian Butt Lift." Just an epic infomercial, complete with lunges and hip thrusts and, uh, rubber bands. They offered the "pencil test" whereby you put a pencil under your buttock and if it doesn't fall, SURPRISE! You're fat!

Well, Troy's response: "If I did that, you wouldn't even see the fucking pencil."

Additional lines:

-"That guy would eat him from the butthole up" (in re: Badgers versus Terriers)
-Mettille does the Cap'n Morgan voice . . . "Calling AALLlellllelalll captains!" Brent then requests, "Say 'add green beans to the shopping list'" (he did)
-Brent: "We'll give you the tube steak - you've gotta work for the gravy." (also, he has a college education - this is not a NASCAR mentality or anything).

Wonderful. On the bright side, +3u on the afternoon session (split Wisconsin -10 and the under, then won Mizzou +2, Pitt -10 and Pitt moneyline -475 for 1u total win), putting me +5u for the tourney. Also took USU +3 against A&M, which looks TERRIBLE right now, so let's not get too attached to that. Punch me in the cock.


Decision time: so I kind of went nuts with the evening games (even though I only really like two of them) . . . so there's that. But first:

During a classic mid-afternoon drunktalk about what you would do with a hot tub time machine, Mettille gave the classic/normal "change some decisions"-type answer. Brent, however? He would "bring a pitcher of bahama mamas" to the party today . . . "one of those 2-gallon ones, that you have to use two hands on."

He followed up, 2 hours later, by saying "we need 1.5 liters of Bahama Mama."

Later: "No, this is my dick" followed by "My balls are too big, my penis cannot conquer them. They cannot divide. United they stand."

This was over a disagreement in beerpong rules: "Bitch I'm going to kill you. When you sleep." Later, wrestling with the kid and the dog, Brent said "UUGHHH, something just hit my balls . . . I hope it was the dog."

Riiight. So I love GT and moderately like both NMSU and FSU, so I did the obvious thing: 1u on each, plus a "wheeled" parlay with .5u on every two games plus all three games (for 2u total). I suppose I don't need to "win" or anything. Holy balls I'm a moron.



Amazing night, spreadsheet-wise . . . ran the full boat for +5.5u in the night session (and my boy Jimmer ran along for much, much more money in Vegas dollars, which is always fantastic). Had everyone but OSU, plus a parlay, which is great.

In other news:

"I really thought only a loss would result in violent nudity. But I was wrong."

Riley stomps on shit: "If your kid were in Vietnam, he'd be DEAD."
BH: "If Riley were in Vietnam, he'd be Charlie."

Also, Verne Lundquist said earlier: "THAT'S A MAN'S JAM!" . . . uhhhh . . .

Nice life.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

New Guy's in the Corner Puking His Guts Out


On like Donkey Kong, or really any number of applicable cliches about the beginning of something. Jared and I actually made it by tip, which lost Tony money (clearly the best part of any given day) . . . normally this would end with "EAT A DICK SON" but it might be a touch too early.

Fantastic. This morning, I saw a kindly-appearing older gentleman walking around the sculpture garden, in that dedicated way where you can tell its his exercise for the day. He had on finely-pressed pants and one of those old-guy golf hats . . . and a navy blue "SPAM" sweatshirt. That's the metaphor for today: looks nice, with four TVs working with every game and 20 laptops running gambling spreadsheets, but at the end of the day, it's drunken asshole fried Spam. So good.

I drew my first drink out of the mystery bag, and wound up with Mike's Hard Cranberry. This year's booby prize: Hard Cranberry Light. Apparently it tastes like shame and iced scrotum. More to follow.

My bets:

-Ark Pine Bluff +4 (and the under at 112.5): +1.5u
-BYU -5 1u
-Nova -17.5 1u
-ODU +4 .5u

Yeah. All looking GREAT. Also Loyd Jr. for BYU is a stud, but fucking A . . . how can you be a black dude and go to BYU? They didn't allow black guys to go to heaven until like 1981, and no black priests until the 90s. The 1990s. This really happened. But yeah, brother - keep on grinding out. I need the 3s.

UNI and Marquette both play at the same time tonight (6:10 and 6:20), so this will be a total shitshow. Watching Brent and JC fight over which one is on the projection screen (and both should be GREAT games) is super exciting, like when you're expected sexual intercourse at some point in the near future but you're not quite sure when, how or why. In other words, it's High School-level excitement in here - Brent's running around the house with a yoke on his neck, while JC is speed-bombing Mickey's and punching the pork shoulder that's being smoked. Also, LOTS of "smoked meat" jokes, which are SO FUNNY. Meanwhile, Troy is dancing around to C&C Music Factory on a Papa John's commercial and asking if "Y'all ready for this" DUN DUH DUH.

Aaaaaand a "fucked your mother" joke - beautiful. See you guys never.


HOLY GOD DAMN MY LIFE what a wonderful cover by BYU. I LOVE MORMON PEOPLE!

That puts me +.5u and +2 for the tourney.

Also, the cheer when Jimmer Fredette started knocking down those last two free throws was delicious (obv Tony lost on UF there). Nearly as awesome as Jimmer's awkward-as-balls wave to the camera on top of him after a particularly gruesome layup miss/foul.

So far, it's been excellent - the first three games featured a one-point loss (and fucking GOOOOOOOOODY putting back a 2-pointer with no time, down by three - perhaps the stupidest thing I've ever seen in a non-Iowa basketball game) and two overtime games. Just amazing - best two days of the year.

As per usual rules, pooping is relegated to the farthest bathroom . . . those pipes are still exposed in the basement, so Brent has greeted every flush through those pipes with "There goes his turd!" The assumption is that Troy's BM would sound like someone dying on South Park - just gurgling and bubbling and a melting noise, possibly with audible English words.

We had to vote on which game to project . . . Brent was roundly outvoted, then got pissed, claiming his vote only counts 3/5ths (and with some claims he's still waiting on his 40 acres and a mule). Mild racism is always funniest when it is rooted in the 1850s. I told him he has to take a test and pay a tax before he can go to the fridge, we'll see how that goes.

Line of the day so far, about Steve's shih tzu/poodle mix (obviously a shitoodle):

JC: "Wait . . . aren't shih tzus like, this big ? How does a shih tzu fuck a poodle?"
*loooooooong pause*
JJ: "Uh, well . . . I think the poodle fucks the shih tzu."

(place everyone going "Ahhhhhhh" here)


It's getting a little silly . . . apparently, Justin has an Olympic weight set, complete with a 45 lb bar. This makes almost zero sense, so obviously we jumped on it and had everybody max. After about 5 hours of drinking. Troy and Mettille actually put up something around 235 . . . I did not.

Also, Brent and JC are now jockeying for clothing for those in attendance . . . handing out either UNI or Marquette paraphernalia and trying to get people in it. I'm in a Marquette Spring Party 2001 shirt, for instance. Brent is now wearing an adult L that is so big on him, he took off his pants and borrowed a woman's belt so it looks like a dress. This somehow makes sense. Tony has on bicep wraps like the Ultimate Warrior made out of purple t-shirt sleeves. Troy cut off the stomach, so he's busting out of the thing - he looks like a gay offensive lineman in 1982. I am so confused.

I won on St. Mary's and KSU (2u), and lost on Vandy (SO BAD JFKDL:AHOFDL) . . . now +4.5u, and pushing this:

-Kentucky -18.5
-Marquette -1

Also I parlayed all four unders . . . I have no idea why. Drinking? I guess.

Additionally, some choice lines that I don't have time to fully write up:

Brent: "I pushed in your mother's backdoor"
JC: "What if one of us goes south?"
Steve: "That's why the large ones are hard to take"
JC: "I have a no-porno clause"
JC: "I don't want the black cards."
Mettille: "Look at the vein on that one."

Also the beerpong bracket has begun, the porno cards are out, and the sun is out. I suppose . . . I suppose.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Day 1: Early Lines

So the early lines are up (on Bodog and, well, everywhere else) for Thursday's first-round NCAA action. The first round is, supposedly, the greatest gambling day of the year, because public money pushes the lines in all sorts of awkward directions, and reputation means more than results to a large swath of the population. Taking a look at the lines, there are a few that stand out:

[8]UNLV (-1) v. [9]Northern Iowa
It looks like the wrong team is favored here, with both Massey and KenPom giving UNI anywhere from a 1 to 1.5-pt edge. Of course, 2 points isn't a brutal edge, but when it flips the line, we pay more attention. Of course, depending on the money line, that might be the stronger play.

[6]Tennessee (-3) v. [11]SDSU
Both Massey and KenPom list this as closer to a 1.5-pt game . . . that other UT is a little overrated this year, and their "run-and-gun" style has been crippled by the 2nd Amendment (they're about average in pace) ... instead, they've done it with defensive efficiency, crushing 3P% for other teams. Unfortunately, SDSU is not a 3-oriented team (200th in 3PA/FGA), and SDSU crushes the offensive glass with a strong inside game that UT isn't tall enough to counteract. Could be a good matchup.

[4]Vanderbilt (-3) v. [13]Murray State
Massey has this at 3, while KenPom has it at 5.5+, giving some protection here. Vandy is likely overseeded a little, but Ogilvy in the middle may have a field day against Murray State.

[7]BYU (-5) v. [10] Florida
There are some that feel Florida is the worst at-large admitted to the field this year, and both Massey and KenPom think the true line is closer to 7. Good enough for me, even if BYU is, well, BYU.

[7]Richmond (-2) v. [10]Saint Mary's
Again, the wrong team is favored - Massey and KenPom have StM's as between a 1.5 and 3-point favorite. The Spiders have talent, there's no doubt, and this one might not pass the smell test based on matchups - Richmond is a bad O-reb team, a true "one-shot" offense that plays with pace and doesn't turn the ball over, while StM's is pretty bad at forcing turnovers. However, StM's can shoot the lights out, and if flying across the country doesn't slow it down, watch out.

And some quick hits:
-The numbers don't love Kentucky - that (-20) might be a little high, may be value in ETSU.
-Montana isn't particularly good, but nothing indicates that NMU should be a (-9) favorite in that game. May be a good place to pound the dog.
-It's not cut-and-dried, but it looks like KSU might clear the (-16) over UNT with some ease.
-Nobody has any clue what to do with the ND/ODU game. In fact, half the capping sites have ODU as a true favorite and the other half think (-3) is perfectly right. Unreal game really.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Loose Women, Hard Lemonade and Awkward Bank Shots

It's so close, you can smell it - that smell that will linger on you (and JC's basement) for a few days afterward, one that you don't even notice anymore because now, well, that's just how the world smells. And it smells good. Kind of.

We're three short days away from the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament, where 64 teams will bludgeon each other over and over until one winner appears, ready to cut down the nets about 7 weeks after the tourney starts. Since it is an orgiastic day of basketball, gambling, and drinking, we've spent years (YEARS JERRY) perfecting how to best mix these three things together while still retaining jobs, families, and without driving anything anywhere at all. We've got it down to a science. A fat, hairy, awesome science. Here's from 07, and from 08, and from 09, although . . . I mean . . . I lived it, sister. I just don't remember any of it.

The gamboooling is clearly the most important part, however - and so I'll run down a little about my system for determining "fair" lines, which I'll use to coast to an even-money finish, losing again to Brent, who will brush his teeth before bed every night even though he passed out for hours in the afternoon.

The 'key' to the whole deal is what is known as the "log5" method of determining comparative win probability. That sounds complex, but it's not - basically, if one team is a .600 team and the other is a .550 team, we want to know how often the .600 team would win if they played a thousand times (hint: It's not .575). The formula is:

(A-A*B) / (A+B+2*A*B)

So in our example, the .600 team would be expected to win 55.1% of the time. We can then convert this to a money line/point spread - the 'real' line would be between 1.5 and 2.5 points (depending on your conversion method). Easy - and you can even do it in Excel after drinking all morning. Trust me, this is vital to any projection system.

The play-in game gives us a chance to test it out. Winthrop is a 4-point favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and when we look at the weighted "true" values for each team, it looks like our "true" spread should be anywhere from 2.8 to 3.5. Massey ( puts his guess at 3.7 in the same direction, so we know we're in the ballpark as the big boys here.

Looking at some other factors (courtesy of - one of the greatest sites in the f-ing universe), Pine Bluff plays a moderately-paced game based around a solid defense and pretty frigging awful offense, while Winthrop . . . does exactly the same thing. In fact, their numbers are nearly identical - you would sleep with one and not realize it wasn't the other, at least until it rolled over and gave off the MangleFace Vibe. I don't know where I'm going with this, but the teams are remarkably similar. As a result, we have no need to shift our profile at all, so we can say we lean juuuuust a little toward taking the points and riding "The Harvard of Pine Bluff" as hard as possible (NOTE: in this analogy, Shooter's Bronco-Bustin' NASCAR Bar is the Yale of Pine Bluff, and the local Valero is Brown). Also note: don't bet this game, it's really too close to take any edge.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

The Manning Fallacy

There's a LOT of public sentiment (and money) moving toward the Colts, even with the line all the way to Indy giving 6. This, of course, leads to only one question:


You have to completely pretend the regular season never happened (or that the NFC is very much the Senior Circuit equivalent) to honestly believe this is a touchdown game. Most of the talk has centered around Peyton Manning "not allowing" this opportunity to pass - as if Brees & Co. have no idea of the ramifications of this game in cementing their legacies. However, if you'll indulge me, I'd like to posit something slightly controversial: while Manning is a legit 1st-ballot Hall of Famer with a legit claim to the title of "Best Ever", today, Drew Brees is a better quarterback.

Brees is 3 years younger (30 to Manning's 33), threw for more TDs and fewer INTs in fewer attempts (34:11 in 514 vs. 33:16 in 571), and completed a higher percentage of his passes (70.6 to 68.8). Manning led in DYAR (see, a measure of success over raw yardage, but Brees was a close second, and his 12% fewer attempts can account for the entirety of the difference. If Manning is the gold standard, you're still measuring Brees in ounces Troy. It just might be 24k to 22k at this point.

Beyond that, the Saints can actually run the ball - first in the world in DVOA (again,, a measure of rushing success versus down-and-distance and game state, with three legit backs with vastly different profiles. The Colts will go one-dimensional and put it on the back of their Superman, but the Saints were actually in the top 10 against the pass this year, and Jabari Greer is a sound lock-down corner who can disrupt Wayne and/or Clark in coverage. While Manning picked apart the Jets using Collier and Garcon last week, Greg Williams gets 2 weeks to scheme against the crossing routes and limit YAC. It's a wash, at worst.

Besides that, the Saints are deeper at every position - and their depth also includes a number of possible big-play threats. While Indy is dicking around (and both teams' numbers are legit terrible on special teams), only NO really has the ability to break a punt or INT for 6.

For those reasons, I can't imagine laying the points - take the Saints, take the 6, profit.