Loose Women, Hard Lemonade and Awkward Bank Shots

It's so close, you can smell it - that smell that will linger on you (and JC's basement) for a few days afterward, one that you don't even notice anymore because now, well, that's just how the world smells. And it smells good. Kind of.

We're three short days away from the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament, where 64 teams will bludgeon each other over and over until one winner appears, ready to cut down the nets about 7 weeks after the tourney starts. Since it is an orgiastic day of basketball, gambling, and drinking, we've spent years (YEARS JERRY) perfecting how to best mix these three things together while still retaining jobs, families, and without driving anything anywhere at all. We've got it down to a science. A fat, hairy, awesome science. Here's from 07, and from 08, and from 09, although . . . I mean . . . I lived it, sister. I just don't remember any of it.

The gamboooling is clearly the most important part, however - and so I'll run down a little about my system for determining "fair" lines, which I'll use to coast to an even-money finish, losing again to Brent, who will brush his teeth before bed every night even though he passed out for hours in the afternoon.

The 'key' to the whole deal is what is known as the "log5" method of determining comparative win probability. That sounds complex, but it's not - basically, if one team is a .600 team and the other is a .550 team, we want to know how often the .600 team would win if they played a thousand times (hint: It's not .575). The formula is:

(A-A*B) / (A+B+2*A*B)

So in our example, the .600 team would be expected to win 55.1% of the time. We can then convert this to a money line/point spread - the 'real' line would be between 1.5 and 2.5 points (depending on your conversion method). Easy - and you can even do it in Excel after drinking all morning. Trust me, this is vital to any projection system.

The play-in game gives us a chance to test it out. Winthrop is a 4-point favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and when we look at the weighted "true" values for each team, it looks like our "true" spread should be anywhere from 2.8 to 3.5. Massey (www.mratings.com) puts his guess at 3.7 in the same direction, so we know we're in the ballpark as the big boys here.

Looking at some other factors (courtesy of www.kenpom.com - one of the greatest sites in the f-ing universe), Pine Bluff plays a moderately-paced game based around a solid defense and pretty frigging awful offense, while Winthrop . . . does exactly the same thing. In fact, their numbers are nearly identical - you would sleep with one and not realize it wasn't the other, at least until it rolled over and gave off the MangleFace Vibe. I don't know where I'm going with this, but the teams are remarkably similar. As a result, we have no need to shift our profile at all, so we can say we lean juuuuust a little toward taking the points and riding "The Harvard of Pine Bluff" as hard as possible (NOTE: in this analogy, Shooter's Bronco-Bustin' NASCAR Bar is the Yale of Pine Bluff, and the local Valero is Brown). Also note: don't bet this game, it's really too close to take any edge.

Yet another 10x10

Brought to you by "hangover at work," ten more record reviews in ten words or less. Life is easy.

Girl Talk - Feed the Animals
Seriously unreal. Nearly flawless. Jesus.
10/10


The Hold Steady - Stay Positive
Will grow on you - expands their sound, for the better.
8/10

Black Kids - Partie Traumatic
Surprise! The previously leaked tracks are the only good ones!
5/10

Bon Iver - For Emma, Forever Ago
Best opening sequence of songs in history. Close to perfect.
9/10


Air France - No Way Down
Pitchfork-fueled mirage - not enough substance to overcome monotony.
6.5/10

Cut Copy - In Ghost Colors
Solid effort that sways toward cheesy just a touch too often.
7.5/10

Tapes 'n Tapes - Walk it Off
Surprisingly inconsistent - hasn't caught hold in my CD player. Weird.
7/10

Nas - Untitled
Fuck Nas. Seriously irrelevant. This guy made "Illmatic"?

Someone Still Loves You Boris Yeltsin - Pershing
Still the worst name in music, still a great record. (Breaking my own rule but FU: download this. It's this year's "The Orchids" - a very good thing)
8.5/10

Shearwater - Rook
I don't get the hype - way worse than Okkervil River.
4/10

Movie Review: Knocked Up

I'll be the first one to admit it, I've never seen "Freaks and Geeks". I'm pretty sure this makes me the worst person to ever live. However, I have seen "40 Year Old Virgin" and I loved it (I wasn't a huge fan of "Undeclared" but that is another post). Judd Apatow is really good at combining a sweet touching story with amazingly hilarious filth.

So you can I see that I was quite excited to see Knocked Up, especially since Seth Rogen is a model jew for all us out there looking to sleep with really hot blond chicks. I have to say that this movie delivers in the same way as "40 Year Old Virgin". It even has the same back and forth with Seth Rogen and Paul Rudd on the whole subject of who is gay. The one thing I do think they improved upon in this movie is the back and forth with the wider group of friends. I really believe they should make a sequel of just Seth Rogen and all of his friends.

Seth Rogen fits pretty well as a leading man, even if he is an unlikely one. On the ladies, I really think that Apatow's wife really outshines Heigl. I mean, the five minute rant in front of the club had me rolling. Don't get me wrong, Heigl does a good job as a serious foil to Rogen, but besides that I wasn't that impressed.

In the end I felt the same way about this as 4o Year, it is hilarious at points, but they definitely could have cut out a half an hour without losing too much. Oh and I did learn to have a spotter if I was going to masturbate with a noose.

P.S. Don't do a google image search for "Knocked Up" with the safety filter off. I'm going to go cry in the corner now. Stupid Interwebs.