Sherman Marched to the Sea, We Marched into a Dirty Garage

11:15am

So it begins ... 3 of the 4 TVs are set up without trouble (the fourth exists, but we have no way to go VGA -> coax as of yet ... this is the definition of first-world problem). Fuck it, I'm sure TruTV.com will suffice.

I have Clemson early, and now kind of like Butler since ODU at -2.5 seems about 2pts too many. More on this another time, after beers.

There's meat in the smoker and homoerotic jokes about the meat in the hopper ... also, apparently Sam's Club orange juice does not need to be refrigerated. This was a surprise to me.

The crew so far:

-Troy: Poops too much, text-message ring tone is the Super Mario power-up noise, we had to turn on a fan onto him already. Expert meat-smoker, also insert own joke here.

-Tony: Loves cheese, walks on the beach, amateur pornography and the photography of Ansel Adams. Plays the banker in Monopoly, yet resists the urge to cheat. Just an all-around OK guy.

-Jared: Already bet his first buy-in for the Points Pool, thus being the first person to rebuy before noon on day 1. Stopped and played Golden Tee at 8am at the inimitable Johnny's Hall of Fame.

-Noonan: Canceled an entire day of SUPER-IMPORTANT insurance meetings in Minneapolis to drive down and get drunk. Hopefully has a job on Monday, but either way will have a story.

-Brent: it's his house. He's boycotting the Laptop Craze - there are literally four laptops and an iPad among us. Brent is using an abacus to select his picks, which is weird because he hates the Chinese.

-Justin: Loves betting the under, which is the worst watching experience in the history of basketball, to the extent that it's now referred to as "taking the pussy" (versus "taking the balls"). Somehow, "taking the balls" is better. No comment.

-RC: Let me tell you 'bout the Hurricane. The man the authorities came to blame, for something he never even done.

New Day Rising (Falling [Dying?])

11:25am

We'll go ahead and start over, since last night was too drunk to walk. Split the night games (push on SDSU, +2u on Wake, -2u on the UT/SDSU over (which was purely based on intoxication) . . . +4u for the tourney. Only one morning bet: +2 on Temple over Cornell at (-3.5).

Jared and I broke even at the casino . . . by which I mean he won a buck and I lost a buck. That's fun. I peed on Prairie Meadows on the way out. Nice forty 12s in a row, assbags.

Our trip to Village Inn this morning was completely uneventful . . . complete with disagreement with the "Did You Know?" that said a majority of people think sharing chocolate pie is the most romantic (answer is obv "Hair Pie"), Troy seeing a condor outside of the restaurant (it's 30 degrees in Iowa), and paying for a $9.95 tab with $12 and getting change back . . . with different 1's than were given to the waitress. Seriously? You didn't get that was a tip?

Also of note: no bloody mary mix at Walmart, Target or Casey's. HyVee was too far away, so we're starting with lovely mixed drinks that aren't bloody marys.

Justin's upstairs bathroom (the kid's bathroom; he's 2) now has toilet paper, so we're back to pooping post-Industrial Revolution. Also, the kid's shower has both shampoo and conditioner - his hair did look silky-smooth though, so who am I to judge?

I couldn't pull the trigger on anything for the UM/Xavier game, but that might be a true pick'em game, and the WVU line looks right (except for, y'know, Morgan State being up 5 right now) . . . We'll see what happens. LOVE GT though, in case any of you feel like printing money at +1.5.

--

4:15pm

Getting awesome - day 2 is always a wreck, because we start with liquor and you're re-drinking anyway. When you're pre-tarded, it doesn't take long to get into awful mode, and it's happening fast . . . for example, Tony and Troy just got locked up into a pseudo-humping position, where Troy threw some sort of f-ed-up wrist lock on Tony, then at the stalemate proclaimed "This is a weiiiiird situation." It was. It completely was.

During the early session, we had 2 games going, so TV3 featured an accidental change to infomercials . . . luckily it was "Brazilian Butt Lift." Just an epic infomercial, complete with lunges and hip thrusts and, uh, rubber bands. They offered the "pencil test" whereby you put a pencil under your buttock and if it doesn't fall, SURPRISE! You're fat!

Well, Troy's response: "If I did that, you wouldn't even see the fucking pencil."

Additional lines:

-"That guy would eat him from the butthole up" (in re: Badgers versus Terriers)
-Mettille does the Cap'n Morgan voice . . . "Calling AALLlellllelalll captains!" Brent then requests, "Say 'add green beans to the shopping list'" (he did)
-Brent: "We'll give you the tube steak - you've gotta work for the gravy." (also, he has a college education - this is not a NASCAR mentality or anything).

Wonderful. On the bright side, +3u on the afternoon session (split Wisconsin -10 and the under, then won Mizzou +2, Pitt -10 and Pitt moneyline -475 for 1u total win), putting me +5u for the tourney. Also took USU +3 against A&M, which looks TERRIBLE right now, so let's not get too attached to that. Punch me in the cock.


6:10pm

Decision time: so I kind of went nuts with the evening games (even though I only really like two of them) . . . so there's that. But first:

During a classic mid-afternoon drunktalk about what you would do with a hot tub time machine, Mettille gave the classic/normal "change some decisions"-type answer. Brent, however? He would "bring a pitcher of bahama mamas" to the party today . . . "one of those 2-gallon ones, that you have to use two hands on."

He followed up, 2 hours later, by saying "we need 1.5 liters of Bahama Mama."

Later: "No, this is my dick" followed by "My balls are too big, my penis cannot conquer them. They cannot divide. United they stand."

This was over a disagreement in beerpong rules: "Bitch I'm going to kill you. When you sleep." Later, wrestling with the kid and the dog, Brent said "UUGHHH, something just hit my balls . . . I hope it was the dog."

Riiight. So I love GT and moderately like both NMSU and FSU, so I did the obvious thing: 1u on each, plus a "wheeled" parlay with .5u on every two games plus all three games (for 2u total). I suppose I don't need to "win" or anything. Holy balls I'm a moron.

---

2am

Amazing night, spreadsheet-wise . . . ran the full boat for +5.5u in the night session (and my boy Jimmer ran along for much, much more money in Vegas dollars, which is always fantastic). Had everyone but OSU, plus a parlay, which is great.

In other news:

"I really thought only a loss would result in violent nudity. But I was wrong."

Riley stomps on shit: "If your kid were in Vietnam, he'd be DEAD."
BH: "If Riley were in Vietnam, he'd be Charlie."

Also, Verne Lundquist said earlier: "THAT'S A MAN'S JAM!" . . . uhhhh . . .

Nice life.

New Guy's in the Corner Puking His Guts Out

11:45am

On like Donkey Kong, or really any number of applicable cliches about the beginning of something. Jared and I actually made it by tip, which lost Tony money (clearly the best part of any given day) . . . normally this would end with "EAT A DICK SON" but it might be a touch too early.

Fantastic. This morning, I saw a kindly-appearing older gentleman walking around the sculpture garden, in that dedicated way where you can tell its his exercise for the day. He had on finely-pressed pants and one of those old-guy golf hats . . . and a navy blue "SPAM" sweatshirt. That's the metaphor for today: looks nice, with four TVs working with every game and 20 laptops running gambling spreadsheets, but at the end of the day, it's drunken asshole fried Spam. So good.

I drew my first drink out of the mystery bag, and wound up with Mike's Hard Cranberry. This year's booby prize: Hard Cranberry Light. Apparently it tastes like shame and iced scrotum. More to follow.

My bets:

-Ark Pine Bluff +4 (and the under at 112.5): +1.5u
-BYU -5 1u
-Nova -17.5 1u
-ODU +4 .5u

Yeah. All looking GREAT. Also Loyd Jr. for BYU is a stud, but fucking A . . . how can you be a black dude and go to BYU? They didn't allow black guys to go to heaven until like 1981, and no black priests until the 90s. The 1990s. This really happened. But yeah, brother - keep on grinding out. I need the 3s.

UNI and Marquette both play at the same time tonight (6:10 and 6:20), so this will be a total shitshow. Watching Brent and JC fight over which one is on the projection screen (and both should be GREAT games) is super exciting, like when you're expected sexual intercourse at some point in the near future but you're not quite sure when, how or why. In other words, it's High School-level excitement in here - Brent's running around the house with a yoke on his neck, while JC is speed-bombing Mickey's and punching the pork shoulder that's being smoked. Also, LOTS of "smoked meat" jokes, which are SO FUNNY. Meanwhile, Troy is dancing around to C&C Music Factory on a Papa John's commercial and asking if "Y'all ready for this" DUN DUH DUH.

Aaaaaand a "fucked your mother" joke - beautiful. See you guys never.


2:05pm

HOLY GOD DAMN MY LIFE what a wonderful cover by BYU. I LOVE MORMON PEOPLE!

That puts me +.5u and +2 for the tourney.

Also, the cheer when Jimmer Fredette started knocking down those last two free throws was delicious (obv Tony lost on UF there). Nearly as awesome as Jimmer's awkward-as-balls wave to the camera on top of him after a particularly gruesome layup miss/foul.

So far, it's been excellent - the first three games featured a one-point loss (and fucking GOOOOOOOOODY putting back a 2-pointer with no time, down by three - perhaps the stupidest thing I've ever seen in a non-Iowa basketball game) and two overtime games. Just amazing - best two days of the year.

As per usual rules, pooping is relegated to the farthest bathroom . . . those pipes are still exposed in the basement, so Brent has greeted every flush through those pipes with "There goes his turd!" The assumption is that Troy's BM would sound like someone dying on South Park - just gurgling and bubbling and a melting noise, possibly with audible English words.

We had to vote on which game to project . . . Brent was roundly outvoted, then got pissed, claiming his vote only counts 3/5ths (and with some claims he's still waiting on his 40 acres and a mule). Mild racism is always funniest when it is rooted in the 1850s. I told him he has to take a test and pay a tax before he can go to the fridge, we'll see how that goes.

Line of the day so far, about Steve's shih tzu/poodle mix (obviously a shitoodle):

JC: "Wait . . . aren't shih tzus like, this big ? How does a shih tzu fuck a poodle?"
*loooooooong pause*
JJ: "Uh, well . . . I think the poodle fucks the shih tzu."

(place everyone going "Ahhhhhhh" here)


6:05pm

It's getting a little silly . . . apparently, Justin has an Olympic weight set, complete with a 45 lb bar. This makes almost zero sense, so obviously we jumped on it and had everybody max. After about 5 hours of drinking. Troy and Mettille actually put up something around 235 . . . I did not.

Also, Brent and JC are now jockeying for clothing for those in attendance . . . handing out either UNI or Marquette paraphernalia and trying to get people in it. I'm in a Marquette Spring Party 2001 shirt, for instance. Brent is now wearing an adult L that is so big on him, he took off his pants and borrowed a woman's belt so it looks like a dress. This somehow makes sense. Tony has on bicep wraps like the Ultimate Warrior made out of purple t-shirt sleeves. Troy cut off the stomach, so he's busting out of the thing - he looks like a gay offensive lineman in 1982. I am so confused.

I won on St. Mary's and KSU (2u), and lost on Vandy (SO BAD JFKDL:AHOFDL) . . . now +4.5u, and pushing this:

-Kentucky -18.5
-UNI Pk
-Marquette -1

Also I parlayed all four unders . . . I have no idea why. Drinking? I guess.

Additionally, some choice lines that I don't have time to fully write up:

Brent: "I pushed in your mother's backdoor"
JC: "What if one of us goes south?"
Steve: "That's why the large ones are hard to take"
JC: "I have a no-porno clause"
JC: "I don't want the black cards."
Mettille: "Look at the vein on that one."

Also the beerpong bracket has begun, the porno cards are out, and the sun is out. I suppose . . . I suppose.

Day 1: Early Lines

So the early lines are up (on Bodog and, well, everywhere else) for Thursday's first-round NCAA action. The first round is, supposedly, the greatest gambling day of the year, because public money pushes the lines in all sorts of awkward directions, and reputation means more than results to a large swath of the population. Taking a look at the lines, there are a few that stand out:

[8]UNLV (-1) v. [9]Northern Iowa
It looks like the wrong team is favored here, with both Massey and KenPom giving UNI anywhere from a 1 to 1.5-pt edge. Of course, 2 points isn't a brutal edge, but when it flips the line, we pay more attention. Of course, depending on the money line, that might be the stronger play.

[6]Tennessee (-3) v. [11]SDSU
Both Massey and KenPom list this as closer to a 1.5-pt game . . . that other UT is a little overrated this year, and their "run-and-gun" style has been crippled by the 2nd Amendment (they're about average in pace) ... instead, they've done it with defensive efficiency, crushing 3P% for other teams. Unfortunately, SDSU is not a 3-oriented team (200th in 3PA/FGA), and SDSU crushes the offensive glass with a strong inside game that UT isn't tall enough to counteract. Could be a good matchup.

[4]Vanderbilt (-3) v. [13]Murray State
Massey has this at 3, while KenPom has it at 5.5+, giving some protection here. Vandy is likely overseeded a little, but Ogilvy in the middle may have a field day against Murray State.

[7]BYU (-5) v. [10] Florida
There are some that feel Florida is the worst at-large admitted to the field this year, and both Massey and KenPom think the true line is closer to 7. Good enough for me, even if BYU is, well, BYU.

[7]Richmond (-2) v. [10]Saint Mary's
Again, the wrong team is favored - Massey and KenPom have StM's as between a 1.5 and 3-point favorite. The Spiders have talent, there's no doubt, and this one might not pass the smell test based on matchups - Richmond is a bad O-reb team, a true "one-shot" offense that plays with pace and doesn't turn the ball over, while StM's is pretty bad at forcing turnovers. However, StM's can shoot the lights out, and if flying across the country doesn't slow it down, watch out.

And some quick hits:
-The numbers don't love Kentucky - that (-20) might be a little high, may be value in ETSU.
-Montana isn't particularly good, but nothing indicates that NMU should be a (-9) favorite in that game. May be a good place to pound the dog.
-It's not cut-and-dried, but it looks like KSU might clear the (-16) over UNT with some ease.
-Nobody has any clue what to do with the ND/ODU game. In fact, half the capping sites have ODU as a true favorite and the other half think (-3) is perfectly right. Unreal game really.

Loose Women, Hard Lemonade and Awkward Bank Shots

It's so close, you can smell it - that smell that will linger on you (and JC's basement) for a few days afterward, one that you don't even notice anymore because now, well, that's just how the world smells. And it smells good. Kind of.

We're three short days away from the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament, where 64 teams will bludgeon each other over and over until one winner appears, ready to cut down the nets about 7 weeks after the tourney starts. Since it is an orgiastic day of basketball, gambling, and drinking, we've spent years (YEARS JERRY) perfecting how to best mix these three things together while still retaining jobs, families, and without driving anything anywhere at all. We've got it down to a science. A fat, hairy, awesome science. Here's from 07, and from 08, and from 09, although . . . I mean . . . I lived it, sister. I just don't remember any of it.

The gamboooling is clearly the most important part, however - and so I'll run down a little about my system for determining "fair" lines, which I'll use to coast to an even-money finish, losing again to Brent, who will brush his teeth before bed every night even though he passed out for hours in the afternoon.

The 'key' to the whole deal is what is known as the "log5" method of determining comparative win probability. That sounds complex, but it's not - basically, if one team is a .600 team and the other is a .550 team, we want to know how often the .600 team would win if they played a thousand times (hint: It's not .575). The formula is:

(A-A*B) / (A+B+2*A*B)

So in our example, the .600 team would be expected to win 55.1% of the time. We can then convert this to a money line/point spread - the 'real' line would be between 1.5 and 2.5 points (depending on your conversion method). Easy - and you can even do it in Excel after drinking all morning. Trust me, this is vital to any projection system.

The play-in game gives us a chance to test it out. Winthrop is a 4-point favorite over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and when we look at the weighted "true" values for each team, it looks like our "true" spread should be anywhere from 2.8 to 3.5. Massey (www.mratings.com) puts his guess at 3.7 in the same direction, so we know we're in the ballpark as the big boys here.

Looking at some other factors (courtesy of www.kenpom.com - one of the greatest sites in the f-ing universe), Pine Bluff plays a moderately-paced game based around a solid defense and pretty frigging awful offense, while Winthrop . . . does exactly the same thing. In fact, their numbers are nearly identical - you would sleep with one and not realize it wasn't the other, at least until it rolled over and gave off the MangleFace Vibe. I don't know where I'm going with this, but the teams are remarkably similar. As a result, we have no need to shift our profile at all, so we can say we lean juuuuust a little toward taking the points and riding "The Harvard of Pine Bluff" as hard as possible (NOTE: in this analogy, Shooter's Bronco-Bustin' NASCAR Bar is the Yale of Pine Bluff, and the local Valero is Brown). Also note: don't bet this game, it's really too close to take any edge.

Lessons Learned?

Well, the big ol' 2-1 split this week (2-1 ATS for the season), but we learned something from every game, didn't we kids?

-Utah/USU: A lot of points is a lot of points, especially in a grudge match game. Note to self: if you don't have a strong analytical edge, stay away from big numbers. This is kind of like falling down the bar-whore ladder at closing time - in the absence of something compelling, just get the fuck out.

-USC/NCSU: This one was pegged pretty well by the major tout guys, actually, and everything that needed to happen (low-scoring game; correlative factors) did. I'm not sure we had much edge here, but following well-reasoned advice in a game without much in the way of contradicting factors is always a smart policy.

-Oregon/Boise State: I think I nailed this game basically exactly, at least as far as what I needed to do to get to the highest-percentage place for a pool. Oregon's rushing attack indeed could not take advantage of Boise's several mistakes, and a sloppy game indeed went to the superlative home field advantage. Sometimes, Occam's Razor is the way to play, especially as evidence mounts to support it (and sample sizes get larger). This could also be construed as "when it's obvious, don't do anything stupid" and/or "don't buy into major-conference preseason hype when contradicting factors emerge, you believe-everything-you-read ninny." Point taken.

Next up: weighing factor-based computer rankings while teams get connected through early play, plus the Week 1 NFL lines. Holy shit, what a week.

It's that time again . . .

Football season begins, which means drinking myself into oblivion with 80,000 of my closest friends every weekend. The season is a total grind - you're worn out by the time November gets around, or at least you are if you're like me (NOTE: don't be like me). This year, I'm in a bunch of confidence-type pools, so I figured I'd outline my process here, for posterity if nothing else (and so I can figure out what the fuck went wrong when I get plowed under). I generally cash in these, although I win pretty infrequently - that makes me think three things:

1 - FFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

2 - It seems pretty likely I get a good handle on the "easy" games every week, but miss (at least in the sense that I don't break away from the pack) on the go-either-way types.

3 - I'm a fucking retard who talks himself into long shots for ridiculous reasons at least once a week.

I'll start with the Thursday college games, just to get warmed up (there's no action this week in any of my pools, because the NFL hasn't started and/or the dudes running it are lazy, lazy men).

Utah St @ Utah (-21)

According to Sagarin, Utah should be a 30+ point favorite on a neutral site. USU is just awful, and Utah doesn't have any sort of reputation for starting slowly. Unless Utah slams on the breaks (or inclement weather, but it's 90 and 10% chance of rain), I'm OK with going there, even acknowledging that USU was better than their record last year, and Utah will be markedly worse. Utah

South Carolina @ NC State (-5)

Bizarre game here, and tough to get a handle on because of USC's carousel of QBs last season and NC State being, well, average. I think USC is exploitable on offense (TAKE THAT, SPURRIOR HAIR CUT!) but I can't see NCSU really dominating on the offensive side of the ball either. Both Dr. Bob and Sagarin aren't big on the -5, so I'll sit on USC and hope Stephen Garcia can complete better than 53% of his frigging passes.

Note that in a "pick-the-winner (no line)" pool, I'd likely ride NCSU here - the five points are that important. I'm in both types, so I'll probably list the results independently.

Oregon @ Boise St. (-3.5)

This game is unreal, really - it looks like the line is basically perfect. Vegas, you win again (note that it opened at 5.5 - Vegas, you're full of fucking tards, but at least the market can bail you out). Oregon has only a handful of starters returning, while Boise lost its front 7 and skill-position guys. BSU's RBs are very solid, though - possibly better than the departing Ian Johnson on a per-carry/success basis. None have proposed after a Statue of Liberty, though, so I don't know any of their names off-hand - they're numbers in a douchey spreadsheet, and will stay that way until and if they rape/rob/fail their way out of school (clearly I'm an Iowa fan).

Here's the thing - BSU is probably a .5-point favorite on neutral turf. Add 3 and get the line, right? Wrong, fuck face - Boise's something like a 5.5-point favorite at home, according to Massey (not Mark - although that would be AWESOME) and just never loses there. Oregon's not a fantastic road team, although they're very good early. I wouldn't bet this game if you gave me the money (NOTE: that's a lie), but if a pool forced me to, I'd take Boise and pray the entirely-new Oregon line can't take advantage of the mostly-new Boise front 7, because Oregon's advantage should come on the ground, at least in theory. I hate this fucking game.

This Is How We Chill From '93 Till . . .

10:00pm

So . . . uh . . . we drink too much. There's that. I tilted off everything - Wisky sucks like fucking Paris Hilton, except I would be much more comfortable with the green-tinted night vision camera, which is absurdly beat. I am terrible at sports betting.

Also I took Bob Morris, which is retarded - I did win a prop by knowing it's in Chicago, but yet I still want to fall into a fire. On the bright side, OSU is Crying Gaming Siena so life could be much worse. I might only lose a dozen this session.

A few great Brent quotes in the interim:

"I need a onesy with a butt flap . . . not for dudes inserting, for poopies outserting."

"I am not the president of the wyoming school for the deaf"
"but you're getting close"

"if you don't love the goo goo dolls, you're no friend of mine"


6:30pm

Loooooooooooooooong time between updates - such is life. Beer has switched to liquor, which is going great. More football resulted in more seal-clapping adventures, including Brent hitting multiple houses with his attempts to throw in the wind. It was . . . poor. Quite poor.

The WVU over/Mizzou -12.5 worked like clockwork, and life is suddenly slightly more easy . . . except I spun that into relatively big moves (3u) on Utah -2 and USC -2. Early in the week, I had Utah at +1, and a friend got +2.5 early in the week, so -2 is basically the "Bring out the Gimp!" moment of the tournament for me. Plus, Zona is up early, so I'm pretty much getting the date rape "C'mon, I won't tell anyone" treatment in the first few minutes. My 'system' (stealing from KenPom and Sagarin; converting to ML/'true' point spread) is doing amazingly well for big conferences and TERRIBLE for small conferences, so Utah will likely do me raw. If only Michael Cera had remembered his tiny bottle of lube.

We had another kid party, which was sweet - the Friday night dinner break is epic, just no games for two hours. We filled the time with Guitar Hero - here's a brief shot of what the setup looks like:



You can see the projector and several key televisions with the undercard games (or MacGuyver when Brent is feeling like a saucy fob), as well as a child who may or may not contribute to failing on that particular song. Riley was also the subject of a series of drunk-Troy barbs, including the epic "Riley looks like a less-attractive Justin" (to Riley's parents, of whom Justin is most likely one). He also told Justin that his kid was most likely gay. Twice. In succession, with no remorse. Just unreal.

You can see the drums on the right - however, what you can't see is that the drums are being manned by the three-headed retard hydra:



Yep - that's four drumsticks among three drummers, playing on one drum set. The highest they managed was like 92% - which is surreal. Three monkeys banging the drums with three typewriters got a 95 earlier. It's a hot drunken mess at this point, which is fiiiiine.

The Mormons are getting faceraped early, and Brent and I nearly just rolled a futon into the beer Christmas Tree (all the empties are being hung . . . hanged? hung? . . . from a base to look like a Christmas Tree - yep). So basically I'm reliant on Tim Floyd to save me, kind of like the Charlotte Hornets circa 1492. I'm 100% sure I'm fucked. Totally fucked.

Brian just got accosted by Troy's kid (~14 months), who immediately fell on a drum stick and cried. Troy told his kid that he should "wait until you can walk then kick him in the face" - Brent then told the kid to "wait until you take chemistry and learn biology then you can . . . I mean . . . yeah, biochemistry, right?"

Boy-yoy-yoy-yoy-yoing.

2:40pm

So work's done forever (or until Monday...whatever) and the drinking has re-begun . . . the penalty Mike's (this time: Lime, which tastes like AIDS sherbet) went down gross and we're on to beer.

After a solid morning split, the wagers are WVU/Dayton over 129 and Mizzou -12.5 . . . I have that game with Mizzou as a "true" 14-pt favorite, but they look like total balls right now. Cornell is just staying solid on D and Mizzou is complying by taking terrible 3s on the break and not defending the interior in the slightest. Bodes poorly for a supposedly-solid defensive team - they're porous like crazy girl diaphragms.

We just had a lengthy conversation about how much it costs to remove hair via laser - I don't even know how or why, but it turns out that $300 is not enough to do armpits, and the average gross backhair costs around $5k.

My brackets are atrocious - it looks like Armageddon but with more black lines. If WVU follows through on their pending terrible loss, I'll be fucked like it's Eagle, CO - totally sweet. I think I even called that shot via email earlier in the week. Stab me in the face. When checking Brent's bracket (he's in just as much shit as I am), a couple derogatory lines were thrown out, and Brent responded with "You, sir . . . uh . . . IDON'TTHINKYOURFACEISATTRACTIVE." Interesting.

Pitt isn't really pulling away from ETSt., which might be interesting, but we'll chill for now - it's like talking during a no-hitter.


11:00am

Yeah . . . my sincerest fake apologies for the lack of late-night updates last night; we threw a 1-year-old party for a while, with the wives and children stopping by to make sure various Daddies hadn't drank themselves into a coma or a divorce proceeding. So far, so good - although seeing a 1.5-year-old passing out beers was pretty awesome, I must admit. Especially when he tried to "drink" from a (sealed, obv) can of Michelob Golden and left a GIANT Cheetos chunk on the rim, which was both disgusting and kind of impressive.

Although even that paled in comparison to Tony DRINKING THE CHEETOS BEER no less than an hour later. That's right; he not only pulled the Cheetos beer from a cooler at random, but it still had enough fake-cheesy flavor for him to recognize it (and nearly puke). Chester Cheetah, you make some deliciously disgusting food products. God drinking is awesome.

After that, there was drunk food (frozen pizza and Wendy's) and a pow-wow session with online poker while I excoriated Michigan for being stupid fucks because God I hate Michigan. I split the fade of the Big 10, then lost two epics by taking Binghamton +21.5 and VCU +8.5, resulting in a basically all-around craptacular day. It happens. Early action is on OkSU at +2 and Marquette at -4.5 (which I HATE as a number, but it's a sympathy pick for JC's homerism - don't be surprised if USU bounces the Golden Christ Warrior Eagles Whatever from the tournament entirely).

I'm not super encouraged about the rest of the games either way - Utah's line is all the way up to -1.5, so hopefully you guys playing at home with your play money (or in a pool) got that game at +1 . . . getting the game 2.5 points from the tip line is just absurd.

One event that we missed out on: there were plans for a midnight football game, using a glow-in-the-dark football. I can't even fathom how poorly this would have gone, but it would have been awesome, and I'm sorely disappointed it did not come to fruition. Maybe tonight?

Mormons, Bears, Bulls, Bigots and more Mormons

8:30pm

Quick entry while I sweat the suddenly-possible cover by Nova . . .

RC: "Prop for $X: who was the greatest player in Gonzaga history?"
Tony/Troy/JC: "Adam Morrison!"
Brent: "Feliz Navidad!"

Holy shit. Also, Feliz Navidad is actually just as far from the correct answer as AdMo . . . Definitely getting rough. Real rough.

5:45pm

"What are the odds of me waking up on the floor with your feet on my face, versus the odds of you waking up on the floor with my balls on your chin?"

So basically that's where it has gone - we grilled on the patio during the "dead period" once UW got up fairly large . . . I added UW -6, so I might actually accidentally win a game. Weird.

The key, though, was throwing the football around out back while grilling. Brent is well on his way to out of his mind, and had the Jake Christensen/Brett Favre Memorial "Throw The Ball 90MPH On A Line" Problem (also known as "mashing the x-button for every pass") . . . we tried to play 500. That failed. Brent and Troy would try to track the ball in the air, then wave their hands wildly, then it would fall about 8 feet away. Simply stunning.

The best part was watching Brent try to catch regular passes - he looked like he was wearing oven mitts, or trying to catch the ball with the back of his hands like a clapping seal. High comedy - I would definitely take Warren from There's Something About Mary before him at a tailgate game.

Brent was just asked to say something retarded for the blog . . . mission accomplished: "The capitol of Djibouti is Djibouti." Thanks.

UW looks pretty great, and the SEC 'revival' may have been premature due to LSU just overmatching a less-athletic Butler team. I'm adding Villanova at -15, mostly because it's in Philly and American's SOS was rough . . . but I really need the 3 points from home-field advantage to stay in it. Thinking about just fading the Big 10, too, and going Clemson (-4.5) and Texas (-4.5). Further bulletins as events warrant.

4:20pm

So the UNI game was a shit circus - just all sorts of awkward, including multiple iffy charge calls that nearly sent Brent into convulsions. It's kind of sad, actually - he would have won a posthumous Oscar had he simply succumbed to the poor officiating (and Lunesta).

I've now officially lost every game, which is sweet - I can't complain yet, I mean, it's not like I spend hours and hours (of billable time) investigating this stuff. I'm really smart. Ugh.

We have a couple of choice Brent quotes so far:

"BLEED IN YOUR SKULL (to Robbie Hummel)" . . . when he learned about Hummel's fractured vertebra, it changed to:
"YOU BROKEBACK FUCK"
"I'm going to Pur-Doody in Tony's mouth" (the sixth or seventh such reference - I seriously have no idea)
"Captain Mother-Jizz-Mouth made my cocktail with Diet . . . dick."

Everyone (but me, obv) had the UNC under at 163 . . . the game was on pace for well over 600 points for a while, but these guys required zero scoring in the last 1:50. To a man, they were complaining about UNC's sportsmanship - like it was a low-brow move to keep playing. Apparently, Roy Williams has no class for allowing the team to continue to play hard . . . then, all sorts of high-fiving when the over missed. I love this weekend.

Oh, then Brent described the time Troy's wife saw his penis - it included the epic line, "put a little barbecue sauce on that, and it's a smokey leee-ink . . . "

So yeah - the smokey link. I guess. Unreal.

2:40pm

Forgot to add this (from during a Nemanja Calasan FT attempt):

TROY: "He's Serbian."
EVERYONE: "ORLY?"
BRENT: "He looks like Dwight Schrute's brother. Mose Schrute. He likes beets."

Uhhhh

2:20pm

UNI . . . not good. Purdue is very 'athletic' (and can't swim - hiyo! Insert own joke here!) and UNI is not. Brent is screaming and dancing and breaking things - he's referred to multiple people as "HUGE FUCKS" and he and Troy just each chugged a 24oz Natty Ice. Ahhh, 5.9% alcohol by volume . . . you never did me wrong. It makes me long for the halcyon days of the St. Ides Case O'Forties, "The beer to have when you don't have to remember.

Brent: "We got'em right where we want'em . . . we're gonna get Johnny Fuckface outta the lineup, we're gonna have seven less turnovers . . . that's what's gonna happen." Thanks, Adolph Rupp!

Brent also just referred to the opponent as "Pur-Dookie . . . like poop." Nah, we get it dude.

Troy: Q: "Is there a reason why we're not watching UNI?" A: "They're at halftime? And that one you're watching on the 4-way channel? That's a live look-in at the game we are watching."
Troy: "Oh. That answers that."

So the wheels are well on their way off - Cal is losing to Maryland, which is just fantastic because I'm completely resigned to losing every single game I attempt to cap, like some sort of reverse Midas Touch where every spreadsheet I touch turns into quadriplegic porn or infanticide.

Also Collin has to be ready to punch a clown - UCONN is in shit shape, up 2 with turnovers all over the hell. Ugly like the Horseface Killer (callback joke! Yay!)

1:30pm

Durrr . . . nice morning. The end of the LSU/Butler game was a Benjamin Button-style anti-climax, with a last-chance inbound to cover that resulted in yet another f-ing turnover. Great. That's OK - a lot of people start 0-3. At least Memphis kept the hope alive.

Brent is already going apeshit on the UNI game, and it's 2-2 18:51 in the 1st. Engelseder just made a free throw, which prompted JC to call him "put your Engelseed in my butt" . . . I have no idea.

BYU's loss was so predictable, Jared said that their God has used up "all his power" on Steve Young. So there's that - Mormons can fuck off, at least until the Utah game.

The next action is all over Cal at -1.5 - I have the 'true line' at -3.5, and UMD sucks, so hopefully we're fading the public instead of looking like idiots. Again. Brent said "Gary Williams can get AIDS - I hate him" which led to this exchange:

JC: "Well . . . I guess we all could get AIDS . . . "
RC: "I mean, that kind of requires . . . let's just say you'll need a little help from your wife."

Beer's going down well. Really well. God I hate Mormonism.

12:45pm

Ummmm . . . Memphis is barely hanging on. I have them winning every pool. I just dropped a tire iron onto my dick - that would result in a drunken mess all weekend, since I would officially be rooting for everyone else to fail miserably.

Butler has made a sick run - punctuated by Troy noting that Goose Island 312 Wheat is "better beer than Coors Light." Uh, really? If only that difference were reflected in their respective prices . . . Jesus. I also think filet mignon is better than human feces, and cooked pork is better than trichinosis.

The BYU game is unreal bad - A&M is making the Mormons look like the Washington Generals. On the bright side, BYU just had 5 white guys on the floor (SURPRISE!) and A&M five black guys . . . it looked like Brown v. Board of Education for a minute.

I'm now relying on the Cal Bears to resurrect this session, which is a boner. UNI starts in a few minutes - Brent is a massive UNI homer. Should they be the 12 who wins, he will drink himself into an Ed Kennedy brain tumor. Meanwhile, UCONN's coach is in the hospital - Memphis is now tied, so both might be dead by morning. Totally sweet.

11:50am

So I just got here and drank my 'ceremonial' Mike's Hard Lemonade (because they no longer make Zima - there's a planet where this makes sense, I promise) . . . it went down like anal. Life is easy.

My early action looks like Tara Reid's saggy boob job - A&M has missed exactly one field goal (they're now 11 for 12) and Butler has 10 turnovers in 13 minutes. No shit - they're on pace for more than 35 turnovers. Stab my neck. Mid-majors. Ugly. Teams that rely on "drive and kick" and jump shooting can go insanely cold in new buildings (or against athletic teams) so it's my own damn fault. I did not know Butler started three black guys, though, which makes me feel a little better about them coming back from 9 (really 7 since I'm getting the points.

Troy just invoked the "touched it last" rule on JC . . . I'm kind of glad I missed the morning run, and if I'm alive at 10pm I'll be insanely happy. Awkward bisexuality jokes are flying fast and furious, with Brent comparing Pogs to touching dudes. I don't even get it, which is a bad sign.

Butler is on the 8-foot projection screen, just adding to my embarrassment, while A&M is on the world's largest non-HD television still in existence. The model name is actually Smithsonian. I'm soul-crushed and it's only noon. Should be fun - I'm telecommuting, by the way, so I'm answering the phones and email from the dude-cave. I can't see anything going wrong there.

10:30am

It's basically that time again: Live-blogging our retardation as a result of the NCAA tournament, where multiple dudes shirk all semblance of responsibility for 2 to 4 days and drink until they feel like the sponge on the side of the sink. This is an especially poignant metaphor for me this morning, as I used the last of my soap in the shower, and may well be scrubbing myself with Dawn via that sponge tomorrow morning. Life is good, if not slightly degenerate.

We'll get started in a proper sense in about an hour - I'm sure JC is already three Captain and Diets in, since they drove to Sonic for breakfast (without me; fucks).

After last year's debacle playing off the same Bodog account (whereby I was a moderate winner, but we had an f-ing spreadsheet dedicated to keeping track who was up/down) we instead decided to just do a line/spread pool this year, along with the winner-take-all bracket. My current plays:

Alabama State +3.5 (DERP DERP) -1u

Butler +2.5 2u
BYU -2 4u
Oklahoma State +2 1u
Cal -1 1u (could be more; the 'true line' is like -3.1, but I just don't trust Cal)
Utah +1 4u
USC -2 1u
Binghamton +22.5 2u
Wisconsin +2.5 2u

Oh, and I picked Memphis to win. In every bracket. Go big or go home, am I right? Nope, I am an idiot.

Big Gulps Huh? Welp, See Ya Later!

FUCK YOU CHIEF KICKINGSTALLIONSIMS, YOU SACK OF CRAP - NICE ZERO-POINT PERFORMANCE. CONTINUE BEING SEVEN FEET TALL AND AVERAGING FOUR BOARDS A GAME, YOU LAZY DOUCHE. AJKLFJDLKLSJFELKS

Always good to start down a game in the tourney . . . Anyway. Follow the rest of my picks as they go down (live!) over the course of the next few days - we're doing the "man cave 3.0" weekend again, and it should be . . . bad. Very bad. Very very bad.

In Re: Nerds in the Springtime

It's the best gambling weekend of the year: March Madness, Rounds 1 & 2! I just had an incredibly interesting email exchange with a friend about vagaries of various brackets - one common (crappy) bracket structure is the "get bonus points equaling the difference between seeds for upsets" meme. Basically, if a 5 beats a 12, you get 1 point - if the 12 beats the 5, you get 7 points. This encourages wild first-round picks, but is it really worth it? Let's look at the math (note: this math relies on a somewhat-odd 1/2/4/16/32/64(!) structure - most are 1/2/4/8/16/32, which does change the Final Four math slightly, but only by a few percentage points):

Here's the odds breakdown for the big seeds (how often you need the lower seed to win to "break even" on rd 1):

15/2: about 8%
14/3: about 9%
13/4: 11%
12/5: 14%
11/6: 20%

If you assume that the higher seed would win the next round, too (so we're 'guaranteeing' the higher seed 3 points):

15/2: 20%
14/3: 23%
13/4: 27%
12/5: 33%
11/6: 60%

Here's the real problem, though: the massive jump between rd 3 and rd 4 makes this just ridiculous. If we assume each #2 seed has a 15% chance of making the Final Four (which would earn you 1+2+4+16=23 points), that means that the #2 seed is "worth" 3.4 points, which is why I used the numbers above. If we assume the breakdown is more like:

1-seed: 40%
2-seed: 25%
3-seed: 15%
4-seed: 8%
5-seed: 7%
6- and below: 5%

Then it's more like:
16-seed has to win 61% of the time
15-seed: 44%
14-seed: 31%
13-seed: 20%
12-seed: 23%
11-seed: something like 14% depending on how you assign that last 5%

Hilariously, if we look at historical data our WAG assumption isn't that far off - over the last 30 years, the chances for a particular seed to reach the Final Four:
1-seed: 42.5%
2-seed: 21.7%
3-seed: 11.7%
4-seed: 8.3%
5-seed: 4.2%
6-seed and higher: 11.7%

So we under-estimated the chances of Cinderella making a run, but past that, we're pretty close. Since it looks like with the notable exception of George Mason and the 2000 FF the seedings have become a pretty efficient market (NOTE: strong chance of confirmation bias after last season), we don't even really need to re-run the numbers. It looks like the best strategy for your "upset pool" at work or with friends is to pick every single 10/11/12/13 to win outright unless you think that the 4 or 5 has a big-time chance to make a deep run.

Oh, and the other big key: correctly pick the championship game. That's about half of your realistically-possible points right there, and it would be nearly impossible to lose under any scenario. Make money make money.

Also, my current first-round picks before the public money rapes the pooch:
Alabama State (+3.5) - very iffy one here, it's right at the Sagarin line but I trusted someone else who loves this line.
Butler +2.5 (it's probably closer to PK)
BYU -2 (LOVE this line)
Oklahoma State +2 (looks iffy with the latest efficiency ratings, but meh)
Cal -1
Utah +1 (should DEFINITELY be favored; money-line play if you can find one)

For reference, the lines for rds 1 and 2 are usually so bad that you don't need a "system" - just use kenpom.com and Jeff Sagarin's Predictatron point spreads, accounting in your mind for travel or probably home-court, and get there. That's the key: Get there.

Lessons in Probability and Randomness (Courtesy of the Memphis Tigers)

Everyone knows that causation does not equal correlation - you didn't even have to get a B in Statistics for Engineers like yours truly to understand and utilize this particular truth (to be fair, it was a two-credit class that was easy like Emerson sororities, and I'm pretty sure I actually skipped class during a test). I deal with correlative stats on a daily basis, though, and even I learned an important lesson while participating in perfectly legal NCAA pools this year: know the difference between "indicative" and "predictive" and how to apply correlations to sports wagering.

I found myself in an interesting quandary while filling out my brackets for this season's NCAA tournament - in every one, no matter how I did the analysis (and I did them in a variety of ways, from using basic stats to using advanced metrics to using who has the hottest cheerleaders), everything pointed toward one conclusion: the four #1 seeds in the Final Four.

This was a problem, because everyone knows that the four #1 seeds have never been in the Final Four prior to this year. Because it is such common knowledge, it's become a mantra at this point (just like picking a 12-seed over a 5 in the first round) - you never take the four #1 seeds into the Final Four, because it's never happened before. I know this happens because, even though I am basically a rational, stats-minded, in-depth gambler, I intentionally changed my bracket picks to exclude a #1 seed in this tournament (generally Texas over Memphis, although in one bracket I tried to expose a perceived inefficiency by taking Louisville over UNC - puke).

I'm not being results-oriented in claiming this was Corky Thatcher-level retarded, although that may be what it seems at this point - there is simply no viable reason for excluding the possibility of all four #1 seeds in the Final Four. Let's go through the perception, and see the issues.

First, there is really no way to support any assertions that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee shows any real inefficiencies in selecting the field, or more specifically the top 4 teams to become the #1 seeds in any given tournament. At every point in the tournament, the lower seed shows a higher winning percentage over lower seeds, from the first round on - all data shows that the selection committee, as a whole, gets it right.

But wouldn't that mean it would be incredibly unlikely to go this long without all four #1 seeds reaching the Final Four? To be blunt, no - it's not that unlikely, really. Given the modern 6-round structure of the tournament, even if a given #1 seed were a 3:1 favorite over every team it played (which seems like a fairly impossible situation), that team would only have a 23.7% chance to reach the Final Four - or approximately 1:4 chance. The variance is huge in a single-elimination structure.

That's really what the problem becomes, then - the fact that the Final Four had not been comprised of solely #1 seeds in the past should not be used as predictive - rather, it is simply indicative of the high variance involved in the tournament itself. This means you should recognize that even the better team will often lose over the course of a given six-game, high-pressure stretch, and that the tournament only gives the best team over that stretch, not over the course of the season. This is not an obtuse lesson, by the way - you can actually guide your selections using this information.

For example, Louisville was underrated by most predictions and most analysis systems because Padgett was hurt for approximately the first third of the season - Loiusville's true talent level was closer to their stats over the last half of the season, which showed them to be closer to the level of Texas than that of Pitt or Xavier. Wisconsin was underrated by most - their pace numbers and stifling defense play a low-variance game, one that is a.) well suited to tournament play and b.) subject to being derailed by a hot-shooting team. Wisconsin's matchup against Davidson was thusly terrible, while they should likely have been picked over Georgetown - that's the kind of brief analysis that can lead to much better tourney results.

At the end of the day, I shaped my Final Four picks around some flawed assumptions - namely, that I "had to" leave a #1 seed out, even when everything told me that Memphis was simply the best team in that bracket, and that they matched up well with both Texas and Stanford. Had I not, I would be in slightly better shape in my pools.

However, all is not lost - if Kansas wins, I win two pools outright (one a winner-take-all pool of the degenerates from the big opening-weekend bacchanalia) and finish either first or second in the last pool, with first place coming if the final is KU over UCLA. Why the reliance on Kansas? Well, according to some stats, KU was the best team in the nation and had the highest probability of winning each of its six games (thus, the highest EV) . . . according to others, this was not the best pick. UNC was going to benefit too much from its status as the #1 overall team in the nation, as they become a "trendy" pick among people scared of screwing up their pools and losing to people who "know more" (these fears are primarily unfounded, by the way), so I felt like there just wasn't the value in picking UNC that KU carried.

It turns out I was right - of the biggest/highest-payout pools I'm in, I'm the highest ranked player picking KU in all of them, and the champion-heavy scoring used by CBS and Yahoo! means that I'll win, even from 5th or 7th place, should KU pull it out. Now, this is definitely a flaw, but one I'm more than happy to exploit. However, I would have put a little more space between me and them had I stuck to both my gut and the stats, and stayed on with all four #1 seeds. Lesson learned.

Pure Madness, Like "Our House" or Maybe "One Step Beyond"

10:26 pm

So it's now officially a nightmare - just dead bodies everywhere. Troy's down, Jared's GONE, and life is easy.

Tony's fiance is wearing a t-shirt that says "Tri-City" on it - she explains it with "well, there were three cities in my area."

Tony notes, "What if there were two cities? Then it would be 'Bi-city' - which is awesome."

Also I added ND at -7, and JJ and TB took just about the full gamut of terrible o/u bets (UCLA over 126, Wisconsin under 136) . . .

7:15 pm

A little background: in the wayback, Brent and I both took time out of our busy schedules of not sufficiently pleasuring our significant others to dog sit for Tony and his fiance. Brent took Friday, and I took Saturday.

I had an uneventful Saturday - I drank beers with some friends, made it back to take care of the dog, fell asleep in the guest room . . . the dog, who is roughly Cujo crossed with the Indian from the Village People, can't be away from people or it shits/pisses everywhere. So, as a result, it slept across my body - it was borderline sweet, or maybe weird, I don't really know. Either way, it wasn't a problem in the slightest.

The next day, Brent called me and this conversation happened (verbatim):

B: "Hey . . . was the dog weird last night?"
R: "Well, he was a little forward - he slept with me."
B: "(sigh) Oh awesome - he was super odd with me, he was all over me."
R: "Uh, I was kidding - he just slept at the foot of the bed, what the fuck?"
B: "Oh - uh, well, I woke up with the dog spooning me. Like, he was behind me, with one paw over my body, caressing me. We were spooning."

Obviously this was the funniest thing I've ever seen - anyway, the dog just went apeshit toward Michael Beasley (RACIST OBV), and Brent laughed kind of uncomfortably, resulting in this comment:

Brent: "You don't know what it's like to make a walk of shame after the dog."

Also he's a fucking mess - he's a puddle like the Wicked Witch of the West. He'll be Rumplestiltsken within the half-hour. Just unreal.

KState looks great even with Beasley in foul trouble, A&M is just puking all over itself, and WSU makes me want to abuse my pets - what an awkward evening. Tony's in full-on "press" mode - every bet is for the roll (obv a reload later).

By the way - Tony just got a little live with Brent, telling him the reason A&M isn't ahead is because the Mormons "put the orange thing in the hoop."

Well, Brent replied with "I put my little red thing in your mom's vagina over and over again, and I never won anything."

It's going to be like that, apparently.

3:56 pm

Well, Baylor can die in a fire - my plan of "fade the Big Ten" is running hot like Hindenburg. The moral? Lots of variance in sports betting. On the bright side, I accosted Tony (in the mouth, obv) in the UNLV game, and I'm approximately even on the day (minus juice, so like -$3 on the day).

Except for I'm down $20 to Brent on a sick prop bet, where I thought the black kid in the Subway "CONGRATS FOR 10 YEARS OF NOT DYING, JARED!" commercial was actually a midget (specifically, Gary Coleman) - apparently, it's just a kid. Easy mistake to make, really.

So there's that - I'll keep you updated when the bloodbath ends. Tony just tilted off his case money, taking Stanford at -15 in a desperate attempt to actually win a game. Clearly, stay away from Stanford tonight - basically, the Lopez brothers are effectively covered in AIDS.

Also, I think I'm on beer 9, and I'm leaning like a V8 commercial. I can only imagine bad things happening from this point - right now, I'm Bobby Hurley getting drafted by the Kings. An hour from now, I'll be Car Accident Bob Hurley. Which is nice.


2:42 pm

Troy might have to head home for a minute to "help pump" for his newborn - I have no idea what that even means. This started a conversation between the new dads about pumping . . . which is just great, really. It's not that it's gross, as much as I just can't imagine these two kids having children. I'm already composing an affidavit for Child Services.

Tony asked JC if he'd ever just wanted to try it himself, and if he would help pump. JC noted that wouldn't work, because "she gets milk, I would just get blood."

After a stunned silence where all eyes were on him, he asked, "wait, did you mean pumping my boob?"

Uh, no.

PS - Marquette is struggling and looking every bit as up-and-down and awkward as they have all season (JC looks like he's going to choke himself to death), Baylor is raping my face, but I've reset on the bright side UNLV is making me look like a genius. Thanks for the free money, kenpom.com!

Additionally, Tom Crean looks exactly like Dwight Schrute. This has caused an uproar of jokes, including:

-"Tom, did the other guys put all your shit in Jello molds?"
-"Coach Crean, let's form an alliance against downsizing!"
-"Ousman, which is the most dangerous bear? FALSE - Black Bear."
-"Ape and I are heading to Coach Crean's bed and breakfast this weekend . . . "

1:50 pm

Quick re-post - Brent bought McDonald's for everyone for breakfast, which is amazing because a.) he weighs 135 lbs. at 5'10" but eats garbage all day and b.) it's not Tasty Tacos, and the guy eats Tasty's like it's covered in oxycontin. Seriously, it's impressive, but in that kind of awkward-impressive way, like fake boobs or being really good at Guitar Hero.

Anyway, Brent ate approximately 50% of a steak burrito before he hit an "onion pocket" - no joke there, just follow with me - and he's been trying to pass that off on someone else since 9:45. Well, Troy, who is lovingly known as the "trashcan with legs," not only just ate it, but ate it without microwaving it.

I think he'll probably get trichinosis and die - yes, I know that's from pork. I'm pretty sure McD's steak is like 30% pork, and if it's not, well . . . Troy's got worms.

1:40 pm

WOW - What an early session . . . TB and I both took a bath on Temple at +7, who couldn't actually guard MSU's big guys in the slightest, but Xavier pulled the MIRACLE COMEBACK for the most insane cover in history.

So I split, losing the juice - the sportsbook wins again. Weird, they're good at what they do.

TB and I are playing on the same Bodog account, and wanted opposite action on UNLV/Kent State - so now the wager is on, with me taking UNLV +2.5 (so add that to the issue).

Troy showed up - he's a monster, who managed to take his Mike's Hard Lemonade starter beer and chug it in 13 seconds. Justin noted, "it took me 3 hours to drink 4 beers - you're on three in less than 5 minutes." It's the truth - Troy just had a kid too so shit will hit the fan.

JC is a Marquette fan (he's an alum, although we've never seen his actual diploma, so who knows) which means we're all painting ourselves Kentucky Blue and raping our cousins. In honor of Kentucky and Rick Pitino, I picked Louisville to go to the Final Four in a few pools, plus I'm slicking my hair back and planning on sucking like Ashley Alexandra Dupre at my next job. Also I might have intercourse with an animal - I think that's Kentucky, but also, y'know . . . Penthouse Letters.

Dan just arrived too - he has to blow into his steering wheel before he can drive. This is pretty rad - he constantly makes "wanna get some fucking . . . FRENCH TOAST" jokes, so at least he has a good sense of humor about his willingness to put his own life and the lives of others in danger. He's degen like rheumatoid arthritis, which is fantastic. Just a good dude, minus the "blow-n-go" thing.

JC just yelled, "GO UP STRONG WHITE BOY . . . YES! YES!"

Ever see a grown man cry? Here comes . . . he just claimed he "only" pouted for 6 hours last year after Marquette lost. It was more like 26 hours. He might rape a kid if this gets any worse - he's an only child. Clearly.

11:50am

And it has begun - Zima does not, in fact, actually exist any more, which was a surprise to not only me, but also the gruff old fuck I asked at the Last Stop Liquors next to the Iowa State Fairgrounds. Just so you know, it's probably kind of racist that we decided to look there. My bad. He didn't even say no, he just shook his head in a kind of sad, downtrodden, confused, "wanted to stab us" way.

So the initiation beer is now . . . "reach into a box and pull out a rando Mike's from the pick-a-mix collection of shit beers." I just finished a Mike's Cranberry - it can officially touch me where I pee.

The Xavier pick looks fucking awful - down 6 with 6:06 left in the first half. Minus one unit, apparently - however, Temple looks solid on MSU, playing some solid D. They really need to stay out of foul trouble, however.

All three games are up on the TVs just fine - we had one issue, where JC decided to follow DirecTV's instructions to "press RED button to find out more!" about AXE deodorant and the TV was locked on a fucking commercial for about a half an hour. It took the DirecTV manual, the Internet, and a little luck to get it un-stuck. His explanation? There was a chick wearing a towel on the side of the screen. Weird, married guy - who would have thought?

The lineup:
Me: Retarded.
Brent: Angry at the world, and pro-all things Missouri Valley. This is why people don't care about the Midwestern states. Just got pissed about a UPS commercial, because "everybody delivers to Portland."
Tony: Basement will soon have poop on the walls, thanks to this group of orangutans. Probably as nerdy as me, but much better at basketball.
JC: Just had a baby, so his drinking regimen has declined profusely. He likes to get naked and hide in his pantry.
Jared: Degenerate. Wearing tear-away pants. He's drinking out of a mug shaped like a ceramic boob. Like, you drink out of the nipple.

So there's that.

9:04am

So yeah - I just made a reference to two different '80s ska songs, which means today is going to be a looooooooong day. I'm sitting at my desk finishing up recommendations for a $30 million lawsuit, then I'm going to head to a semi-finished basement and yell, drink, gamble and just generally appear to be a nightmare. Meanwhile, updates will be posted here - what a country!

Last year's shitshow is up for all to see - so we're going to try it again. Why not? We've got four TVs set up ranging from wall-projector huge to airport-terminal tiny, with theater-style seating for somewhere between 8 and 25 and two Wiis set up for when UNC is inevitably the only game running at the dinner break and they're already up by 29.

My Thursday action so far:

-Xavier -8.5
-Temple +7
-Baylor +3
-KState +3.5
-WSU -9

So the countdown begins - not the countdown to the games, mind you, but the countdown to the beginning of the party. This year's initiation: your first drink has to be a warm Zima. I didn't even know they sold Zima anymore - I figured these guys were the last official Zima drinkers. Apparently I'm about to be proven wrong.

I hope it goes well with McGriddles, because G-d damn it, that's what it's getting.

Here's the track of the day to get you started:
Cheeseburger - Tiger

NCAA Tourney Starts Tomorrow

Yeah, so the tournament starts tomorrow and everyone you know has suddenly started asking your opinion on BYU (my thoughts? Mormons are dead inside). Personally, I know less than nothing about college basketball. My bracket is usually just random tidbits I pulled from other sites and my own stupid thoughts such as:

-I picked St. Joes and St. Marys to upset because Easter is this weekend and Jesus has a lot running on this shit.

-I picked Duke to lose to Arizona because....well..Fuck Duke in the ear.

- I picked Xaiver to go to the Elite Eight because X's are cool man, just ask Bender.

- Finally, I picked UCLA to win it all because..... I start drinking at work early? I really have no answer. Call it random idiocy.

So there you have it, I'm no better than that annoying secretary in your office. I think RC is going to be live blogging tomorrow with a little more insight than I can provide. I will be watching from my office and yelling nonsensical gibberish at the screen about missing free throws.