30:30 ... 4 Days in October Impresions

It's a frigging overload. Some observations:

-Millar calling out CHB and telling him he'd start G7 at 2B and bat 9th was unreal - "Then you can take back that 'frauds' comment" was beautiful.

-Marriotti's stupid ass saying the Sox were done at every opportunity was wonderful. That wife-beating douche should spend his 40 days of community service shining the 04 trophy and learning how to do some sort of blue-collar profession so the world is never submitted to his shit again.

-The different versions of how Pedro went into the 7th game between Tito and Petey were the least surprising thing ever.

-Schilling's leg looked like the science experiment it was. Unfathomable. He also looked drunk in his interviews, but I'm OK with that.

-Bernie's noodle arm in center played SUCH a huge role, that I'm stunned I didn't recall in hindsight. What a great baseball player (and, reportedly, guy), but that guy wouldn't play CF on our slowpitch team. THROW BETTER YOU DOUCHE.

-Tony Clark's ground-rule double is the single luckiest thing that ever happened. I'm pretty sure ever.

-When you were a kid, you always just knew your heroes would come through, regardless of the situation - whether it was Superman, your dad, some guy in an apocryphal story, or whatever. For a long time, David Ortiz was that guy - you just couldn't imagine he wouldn't rip, wouldn't lose one with the game on the line, wouldn't come through. In hindsight, it's just so, so sick. He was Superman, your dad and Paul Bunyan all rolled into one fat dork who crushed fastballs.

-Calling Schilling "Old Man River" on the plane (and Pokey getting down) was just amazing - that's f-ing Pokey Reese! SERIOUSLY!

-I'm sure others won't get it - but it was one of the best hours I've seen on TV. I couldn't be happier.

<3 RC

When a picture is worth 1000 words . . .

So yeah. By Win Expectation, the Red Sox came back from a less-than-1% chance to win the game - that's Some Good. The Sox had a 1.1% Win Expectancy when they came up to bat in the 7th - that means they overcame a 99:1 longshot inside of nine outs. Unreal. You can't even make that stuff up, to be honest.

JD Drew gets treated like Scolari in BaseketBall, even by otherwise rational Red Sox fans - whether it's because of his calm demeanor, his relative inability to smash his helmet or argue with the umpire like Youkilis, or simply because he's from Georgia and, fuck, we sent Sherman after all . . . it's nonsense, but the image of JD Drew as an overpaid, lazy malingerer is still ripe within pockets of Red Sox Nation, like some sort of intellectual SuperAIDS, spurned by the methamphetamine of newfound entitlement felt by pampered and spoiled Sox fans (never though i'd write that . . .).

Well, I wrote about Mr. Drew in the past, but I think today provides us one stat that should usurp almost every other, even after the hangover from last night subsides:

Red Sox total WPA: .608
JD Drew's WPA: .554

Yep - JD Drew's HR and game-ending walk-off "single" (NOTE: I'll never understand why a walk-off ground-rule double doesn't automatically drive in both runs like a HR would, but I digress) accounted for 91% of the total Red Sox WPA for the game. You know our (my?) aversion to context-based stats like RBI on this very blog, but over a one-game sample, I have no problem noting that JD Drew was the balls last night.

Oh, and apparently a few of our friends were among the multitudes that left early last night, missing the entire comeback. I can only imagine this is the sporting equivalent of passing out during sex, or missing your flight to Vegas, or taking the LSAT during a bachelor party - sure, you'll hear about it later, but that has to make it worse, right?

Initial Thoughts on Manny for Bay:

Seriously - if as reported here (or any reasonable derivation), I'll punch a midget in the face then buy a medium Snickers blizzard. Also obviously I'm at work at 2am again. Better analysis tomorrow?

The Dangers of Pretty Things

One of the most bizarrely difficult issues for sports fans to agree about or reconcile comes in that grand issue of "clutch" - and, while I won't open that can of worms today, it is certainly part of a larger intangible issue that fascinates people in general: response to difficult circumstances. From US Magazine to The Hills to news reports about surviving attempted decapitation, people love to see others cope - even if the coping strategy results in dismal, bloody, excruciating failure. Shit, some would say especially when it ends in massive, bowel-clearing failure.

One of the best illustrations in recent memory came in Juno - while a well-done movie by almost any regard, one scene stands head and shoulders above the rest. After Jason Bateman's character completes the 90' turn into creepdom and Juno realizes the shit just hit the fan, she drives down the road, ultimately pulling the minivan over to break down and cry on the side of the road. Basically, the cut-and-dried, simple, perfect solution she crafted to escape her shitshow pregnancy has just disintegrated into disaster.

Really, this is a great point - we often become enamored with things that are easy or "perfect" solutions to existing problems. This can lead to sloth. Think of how many times you've seen someone select the least-horrible of a series of shitty options, only to work hard and find that the results far outpaced anyone's expectations. Now, think of how many times slam-dunk setups have failed miserably, only to result in black tar heroin and concomitant residency under bridges or in bus station men's rooms (or, like, just bad stuff happening).

After last week's revelation that Curt Schilling's biceps tendon looks like "three strands of spaghetti" there is a small chance that the Boston Red Sox have fallen for The Danger of Pretty Things - that solution that seems so easy that it's a no-brainer, although the fallout of its failure would be much more drastic than the solution's elegance would let on.

The Sox starting rotation would have set up beautifully - run out Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Lester and Wakefield, most of whom will need at least a few weeks on the DL. Keep Buchholz in Pawtucket, on a strict innings limit of 5IP/start, ready to fill gaps as needed. Get Buchholz ~120 IP in the majors, keeping him around his 180IP limit for the season (and, hopefully, keep him in AAA until mid-May, so his service clock gains another year before free agency).

Now, though, there's a problem - either Buchholz starts the year with the big club, which would give the team the best pitcher in the group but one with a strict innings limit because he is still right within the injury nexus, or you run out there with Julian Tavarez, who put up as heroic a season of 5.25 ERA ball as has ever come from a man in such dire need of plastic surgery. There are external options, but given there are about 5 days before pitchers and catchers report, that field is winnowed to the bloated corpse of Bartolo Colon (who reportedly couldn't hit 90 in winter ball, and was making the 6th inning look as impossible as scaling K2), the consistent mediocrity of Kyle Lohse (who is certainly no solid bet to perform better than Tavarez), or paying Billy Beane's mortgage for Joe Blanton, a 200IP workhorse who looks oddly like John Daly.

The rotation solution was so elegant that its downsides become almost stark in contrast - and while the "problems" are really pretty nice to have (the Sox still have one of, if not the best, rotations in baseball), the current scenario is simply way worse for the team. Interestingly, there are other places where this might even be more true - any injury to Lowell or Youkilis will give a couple hundred ABs to Sean Casey, who should be good for an OPS+ of about 92, and corner-outfield issues would immediately either force Bobby Kielty into the lineup, or require an unreal LF/CF combo of Ellsbury and Crisp, turning the Red Sox into some bizarre version of the '86 Cardinals. The bullpen isn't really set up for losing Papelbon for any amount of time, unless Manny Delcarmen continues to make strides - and I say this as someone who wholeheartedly rejects the myth of the closer.

Now, I don't mean this to be a doomsday-scenario, chicken-little'ing of the Sox this season. Indeed, the Red Sox are still the likely favorites to win the AL, and should be considered such by a fairly good margin. While Lowell will likely never repeat his BABIP/LD%-increase-fueled career year, and while Pedroia and Youkilis have likely shown near-peak capability already, a moderate rebound from Manny and Drew would more than offset this, and getting an .800 OPS from CF while staying within -5 of Crisp's defense would be a remarkable upgrade. It's an incredibly well-rounded squad, one which is built to survive through many different styles of baseball, and built to win both in the regular season (with power bats and lineup depth) and post season (the "secret sauce", run prevention, very strong front-end starters).

No, let's not lament or cry for the Sox just yet - while losing a legit hero in Schilling, his PECOTA projection was for 125IP at 4.18 ERA, which passes the smell test - but it seemed worth noting that the ultimate failure of the Schilling scenario, at least to this point, really indicated a "Pretty Things" problem to the best possible effect. Interestingly, if Schilling's rehab actually works (and Dr. Morgan obviously thinks that will not be the case), he can come back after the All-Star Break and contribute important innings down the stretch, resting all of the pitchers for a few weeks. This, my friends, is pretty much the definition of the tantalizing idea that might just be too seductive for its own good. Once again, I've fallen for the Danger.

JD Drew did not rape your mother

Among other bad things, JD Drew does not get as dirty as some fuckfaced retards (COUGH COUGH) would enjoy - he also takes a lot of pitches, almost never swears on the field, practices wikka, has never (to my knowledge) railed a stripper or dragged Jacoby Ellsbury's drunken ass off a bar stool at Fanuiel, and went home to be with his 18-mo.-old son instead of getting wasted on the mound with a naked Papelbon last week.

He did not, however, rape your mother, nor did he rape the Red Sox out of $14 million.

After the dust settled, JD Drew finished with a season-long composite of .270/.373/.423 (for a .796 OPS) - this is not exactly worth $14 million on the whole, but this compares similarly with such stalwart players as Jermaine Dye (who some idiots wanted to replace Drew at the trading deadline), Miguel Tejada and Michael Young. By most measurements Drew played decent defense (with the exception of Zone Rating, which is always f-ed for Fenway's bizarre RF) to offset the positional issues. He was worth about 4.6 wins according to WARP3, and was certainly a positive contributor for the Sox this season.

More striking, Drew has amped it up in September, to the tune of .342/.454/.618 (OPS of 1.072). In the second half, he went .286/.379/.462 (OPS .841), which includes a brutal month of July. If you take away his May and July bed-poopings, he played four months of .900+ OPS baseball - Manny Ramirez has an OPS of just about .900 exactly this season. When you look at that division banner and think about the Yankees' inevitable run this month, you have JD Drew to thank for helping fend off the Scourge's Surge.

With the usual adjustment to the AL, as well as the severe personal issues Drew has gone through, this season and his hot streak heading toward the playoffs should be viewed as a massive positive - booing this man should result in a punch in the anus, when Certified Hard Workers (r) like Trot Nixon struggle to sub-.700 OPS numbers in a platoon role.

So the next time Simmons makes a cheap crack about Drew wilting in a prime role or taking a called third strike think about this:

Drew's OPS for the year: .796
RISP: .784 (league: .780/RS: .829)
RISP/2 out: .831 (league: .753/RS: .792)
Tie game: .863 (league: .764/RS: .825)
Close/late: .763 (league: .723/RS: .745)
Plus, Drew is third on the team in WPA for hitters - if you don't know what that is, bitch you better ask somebody . . .

Then, after properly smart-ifying yourself, inform them kindly that they should a.) eat uncooked pork and get trichinosis and/or b.) stop being the Massholiest of all Massholes, and embrace a guy who has worked hard and fought through 2 very tough months to be a productive player who may wind up the centerpiece of the Sox playoff run. If nothing else, his September indicates he could be the middle-of-the-order fixture the Sox wanted him to be for years to come.

JD Drew is not a problem on the 2007 Red Sox. Should the Sox get some breaks, I fully expect to see Drew on the mound, dancing with Paps and looking like these guys:

Mind-bottling

An entire weekend of NFL draft and Miller Genuine Draft, and it's safe to say that in the spirit of Kwanzaa, I've got a problem with most of you people.

I really don't want to get into the Philly draft, mostly because I can't really comprehend what was going on. The 2nd-round QB has me mind-bent, and while I realize I'm slightly less risk-adverse than most (HI POKER), passing on Bush was hilarious, even for the current Eagles regime and their stodgy (and successful) personnel strategies.

Instead, let's talk about firing Joe Torre - one more reason why I could never be a Yankees fan. The Dan Duquette administration had more than its fair share of bizarre moves and reactionary drivel (hellooooooooooo Mike Lansing/Dante Bichette), this is certain. However, the sheer amount of drive shown by the NYC press, along with Steinbrenner's zeal (which, while commendable, works as a detriment as much as a positive - see: the 1980s), lead to such ridiculous situations that I can't really get over it easily.

Firing Torre would be just surreal - there's absolutely no chance you can blame him for the team's start. The Yankees are near the top of the league in runs scored (lead AL/2nd MLB), and their bullpen (while tattered) is not the glaring weakness most are claiming, in spite of Rivera's noted problems. The problem is mostly starting pitching, and specifically injuries. While research has shown a correlation between injuries and certain staffs, the Yankees have never really had problems - most of these are probably flukes.

Certainly, you cannot blame overwork here - Torre's bullpen usage is remarkably inefficient and suboptimal, but with possible exception of not controlling Wang's innings somewhat better, his use of starters has been flawless for years. He's willing to adapt (throwing starters from the pen on their throw days) and doesn't overwork needlessly. The starters, quite simply, cannot blame Torre, nor can the offense.

He also shouldn't be punished for Karstens sucking, or Igawa adjusting slowly, or Chase Wright being a punching bag. There is no alternative that is clearly more desirable. To reward a guy who has done great things with this team by using him as a scapegoat (all this after 1/8th of a season) is horrifyingly shortsighted at best, and borderline negligent at worst.

On an unrelated note, I've watched all of Matsuzaka's starts this year - I have absolutely no problem with his pitch selection or use of multiple types . . . so Ryan, I think you're 100% wrong. Unless you can identify which of his breaking or off-speed pitches are actually below-average offerings, I can't see anything specific that gets him into trouble other than locating the fastball early.

The only flaw with Daisuke so far is that he loses a little bit of command out of the stretch, so teams are taking a little more against him to try to get him out of the windup. He'll have to adjust - however, with his borderline-retarded 10+ K/9 and almost 4:1 K/BB ratio, color me unconcerned - exactly half of his earned runs have come against the Yankees, who have the best hitting lineup in modern baseball history, and he's still only at 4.38 ERA. All good in this hood.

Also all good: this Diplo remix of TV on the Radio's "Starting at the Sun" - just unreal. This whole Baltimore gutter scene has me super excited, in a scared white boy way.
TVotR - Staring at the Sun (Diplo Hollertronix mix)

Yankees/Red Sox: Live

To quote Eric Cartman: "Oh, the tears of unfathomable sadness! Yummy!"

I know it is April, but to see the soul crushing sadness in the eyes of all Yankee fans at that game was pretty awesome. I'm going to sleep well tonight.

In other news, this was my first time seeing Dice-K live. Really weird wind up to see, with the slow motion in the middle of it. I can see how it could throw hitters off. However, Dice-K is alone to blame for the four runs. He didn't even make the Yankees work for it. Out of all those pitches he has, he should really only throw about three of them. Plus, what the hell does Varitek say to him on the mound? That must be a fun convo.

I don't know what Manny's problem is. I hope no one told him that people are actually watching these games. Geez, .198 for April? Get that guy some breast milk.

In closing I give you this:

Mariano Rivera has a 12.15 ERA. It warms the cockles of the heart, doesn't it?

Red Sox Rape Chase Wright, No Charges Filed

That was extremely satisfying.

I mean, it is April and there is a whole season left to play. However, after the thumping the Sox got from the Yankees last season during that five game series it was nice to see a little comeuppance.

Seeing back-to-back-to-back-to-back homers is always a nice added topper. Poor Chase Wright though. A couple weeks ago you are slogging through double AA and all the sudden you are getting face raped on national television. That speaks volumes to how decimated the Yankee rotation is. Not to mention being forced to use Josh Phelps as your catcher. I think Joe might be hearing from George this week, especially after his shitty use of the bullpen on Friday.

I wasn't that impressed with our starting pitching. I did like Dice-K's attempt to throw inside. Sorta like a child learning to walk. Plus, someone should have done that to A-Rod sooner.

Pictures = 1k words and all . . .