The Manning Fallacy

There's a LOT of public sentiment (and money) moving toward the Colts, even with the line all the way to Indy giving 6. This, of course, leads to only one question:

Why?

You have to completely pretend the regular season never happened (or that the NFC is very much the Senior Circuit equivalent) to honestly believe this is a touchdown game. Most of the talk has centered around Peyton Manning "not allowing" this opportunity to pass - as if Brees & Co. have no idea of the ramifications of this game in cementing their legacies. However, if you'll indulge me, I'd like to posit something slightly controversial: while Manning is a legit 1st-ballot Hall of Famer with a legit claim to the title of "Best Ever", today, Drew Brees is a better quarterback.

Brees is 3 years younger (30 to Manning's 33), threw for more TDs and fewer INTs in fewer attempts (34:11 in 514 vs. 33:16 in 571), and completed a higher percentage of his passes (70.6 to 68.8). Manning led in DYAR (see www.footballoutsiders.com), a measure of success over raw yardage, but Brees was a close second, and his 12% fewer attempts can account for the entirety of the difference. If Manning is the gold standard, you're still measuring Brees in ounces Troy. It just might be 24k to 22k at this point.

Beyond that, the Saints can actually run the ball - first in the world in DVOA (again, FO.com), a measure of rushing success versus down-and-distance and game state, with three legit backs with vastly different profiles. The Colts will go one-dimensional and put it on the back of their Superman, but the Saints were actually in the top 10 against the pass this year, and Jabari Greer is a sound lock-down corner who can disrupt Wayne and/or Clark in coverage. While Manning picked apart the Jets using Collier and Garcon last week, Greg Williams gets 2 weeks to scheme against the crossing routes and limit YAC. It's a wash, at worst.

Besides that, the Saints are deeper at every position - and their depth also includes a number of possible big-play threats. While Indy is dicking around (and both teams' numbers are legit terrible on special teams), only NO really has the ability to break a punt or INT for 6.

For those reasons, I can't imagine laying the points - take the Saints, take the 6, profit.

What an odd night

So the Yankees have finally succumb to the obviously superior Indians. Although I will say that having Borowski as your closer has to make you want to vomit every five minutes. Jesus, that was scary at the end last night and I am not even an Indians fan.

I did enjoy what was possibly A-Rod's last at bat as a Yankee and he did what everyone accuses him of: hitting an ultimately useless home run. Good for you Alex, good for you.

Thankfully, we don't have to be bombarded with FOX shitting themselves over a Red Sox/Yankees ALCS. Personally, I don't think I could take that again. 2004 was just about enough for me.

Meanwhile, in football world the Buffalo Bills had their first MNF showing in 13 years and boy was it something. Our defense actually showed up and basically personally assraped Tony Romo. Thanks to what I think was inept coaching (really? Trent Edwards throwing on third down when you are up by 11? Just run the fucking ball!) we of course lost the game due to a 53 yard field goal. Like there was any ever doubt the Bills would blow it.

First off: Fuck Dick Jauron. Fuck him in the ear. He sucks and looks like death. Take your Yale degree and go coach pee wee football. That is about what you are worth. Second: If I ever have to see Jerry Jones jumping up and down in Ralph Wilson Stadium again, I might jump out a window. Third: Tony Romo is a dick. Seriously, his post game comment about "great qbs" overcoming adversity was utter crap. Stop listening to ESPN slurp on your balls. You aren't that good.