- You’ve probably heard that Bob Huggins has left Kansas State for the greener pastures of West Virginia. In fact, if I’m saying “greener pastures” and “West Virginia,” I should probably make some sort of cow joke, but I digress…I’m just hoping that the guys who are so wound up about players leaving college early are going to be getting on Huggins’ case this time around. He was kicked out by Cincy, with his reputation in the gutter, and K-State showed up with a good job for good money. I don’t begrudge anyone following their hearts/minds/money, but if we’re going to criticize early entrants into the draft, we should be doing the same to guys like Huggins.
- The debate is going to rage on no matter what, but I don’t think you can pass up Greg Oden, even for a talent like Kevin Durant. Durant’s skills are unquestioned, as are the results; averaging over 25 points and 11 rebounds per game, including some impressive games against the likes of Texas A&M, USC, Gonzaga, and other strong competition. However, I don’t think you can pass up a true center like Oden, especially one as skilled as Oden. His performance in the Florida game (notwithstanding Thad Matta not giving him a rest) just confirmed things. Centers who are his size, with his skills, don’t come around too often, and are one of the rarest qualities in the NBA these days. Durant can play, but there are more and more guys who can play the 3 or 4 spots like him. The team with the top pick should make the leap, take the big man, and go from there.
- The Dice-K era began in Boston with a bang, and while Sox fans shouldn’t expect 10 K’s every time out, it should be remembered that this guy is GOOD. Everyone, from Baseball Prospectus to ESPN to the grouchy old baseball writers are high on him. Are we looking at the next Pedro or Rocket? Probably not, but we’re looking at a top tier starter, and that in itself should be good enough for Sox fans.
- If you had told me three years ago I would pick Jose Reyes with my top pick in my fantasy draft, that I would get multiple trade offers for him, and that I would reject them all, I don’t think I would have believed you.
- Just a heads up to anyone who is thinking of going to law school; don’t be that guy/girl who raises their hand on every question. Also, don’t be that guy/girl who criticizes everyone else’s viewpoints. Remember, these are the people who you will be practicing with and against when you get out of school. Best not to have people hating you at the end of first year.
Showing posts with label collin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label collin. Show all posts
Friday, April 6, 2007
Friday, March 9, 2007
The Numbers Game
755 home runs; 20 strikeouts; 3,000 hits; .406 average; 100 stolen bases; 56 game hitting streak.
Numbers have been a part of baseball as far back as anyone can remember. From the moment when Babe Ruth crossed the then-mythical 30 home run barrier, through Jose Canseco’s opening of the 40-40 club and the all-around numbers put up by Alex Rodriguez, baseball has always been a sport consumed with numbers. Even more than other sports, we use the numbers to judge what we think of a player. For years, a guy who hit .300 with 25 home runs was an all-star; someone with 20 wins, a Cy Young Award contender. If you broke the 3,000 hit barrier, or went past 500 home runs or 300 wins, you had a plaque waiting for you in Cooperstown. Sportswriters and casual fans alike flocked to the box scores to see how players played, how their numbers stacked up, and made judgments accordingly. Eventually, new numbers (like saves) gained importance, and people adjusted their expectations.
Recently, these numbers have been expanded upon by a number of authorities. Bill James and his progeny opened the door in the 80’s, joined by a group of baseball lovers who saw that there were more numbers that could be a window to greatness. Eventually, this group has expanded statistical analysis far beyond what sportswriters like Damon Runyon could have imagined. Now we have VORP, WARP, FRAA, and a number of other categories where we can measure athletes’ performance. It has allowed us to re-evaluate the greats and current stars; as a result, we can see just how valuable some players (Joe Morgan for example) were, and discover some overlooked players (Bobby Grich and Ron Santo) who deserve quite a bit more praise.
Recently, at least one ESPN.com writer and one prominent baseball writer have criticized this new analysis. Basically, their argument comes down to one premise: this analysis, done by people behind a computer who don’t even watch the games, has taken the fun out of watching baseball. If you listen to people like Joe Morgan, you would even get the feeling that this analysis is bad for baseball, and that this is just a bunch of nerds with too much time on their hands.
The unfortunate thing is, if these people actually read these sites that they so despise, they would get a much different feeling. Anyone who has read Joe Sheehan, Nate Silver, Rob Neyer, or any of their colleagues cannot help but walk away knowing that these are people who love baseball. This is the new generation of baseball writers, a generation that loves the game, but recognizes the flaws in statistical analysis. Part of it is, of course, ignorance; one ESPN analyst who criticized Moneyball freely admits he never read the book, and the baseball writer mentioned earlier noted that he does not read the Baseball Prospectus emails he receives.
If these people actually read the sites and the books though, one would guess they would have a far different opinion of these new-age baseball writers. Opening up a Bill James volume, one immediately notices that his list of 100 greatest players doesn’t stray too much from everyone else’s lists (except that he includes Negro Leaguers). These aren’t people who are out in left field (no pun intended), but they’ve simply refined current methods.
Will this new group of writers be accepted quickly, their methods understood by the current set of writers? Next year will be a good test; Tim Raines, a Hall of Famer by current statistical analysis, comes up for election in 2008. Whether he passes muster with the HOF voters will go a long way with seeing just how flexible this group can be going forward.
I would like to be optimistic. After all, I’m a convert myself, and I figure if a liberal arts type like me can see the light, anyone can. All we can do is hope, and get ready for another great season.
Numbers have been a part of baseball as far back as anyone can remember. From the moment when Babe Ruth crossed the then-mythical 30 home run barrier, through Jose Canseco’s opening of the 40-40 club and the all-around numbers put up by Alex Rodriguez, baseball has always been a sport consumed with numbers. Even more than other sports, we use the numbers to judge what we think of a player. For years, a guy who hit .300 with 25 home runs was an all-star; someone with 20 wins, a Cy Young Award contender. If you broke the 3,000 hit barrier, or went past 500 home runs or 300 wins, you had a plaque waiting for you in Cooperstown. Sportswriters and casual fans alike flocked to the box scores to see how players played, how their numbers stacked up, and made judgments accordingly. Eventually, new numbers (like saves) gained importance, and people adjusted their expectations.
Recently, these numbers have been expanded upon by a number of authorities. Bill James and his progeny opened the door in the 80’s, joined by a group of baseball lovers who saw that there were more numbers that could be a window to greatness. Eventually, this group has expanded statistical analysis far beyond what sportswriters like Damon Runyon could have imagined. Now we have VORP, WARP, FRAA, and a number of other categories where we can measure athletes’ performance. It has allowed us to re-evaluate the greats and current stars; as a result, we can see just how valuable some players (Joe Morgan for example) were, and discover some overlooked players (Bobby Grich and Ron Santo) who deserve quite a bit more praise.
Recently, at least one ESPN.com writer and one prominent baseball writer have criticized this new analysis. Basically, their argument comes down to one premise: this analysis, done by people behind a computer who don’t even watch the games, has taken the fun out of watching baseball. If you listen to people like Joe Morgan, you would even get the feeling that this analysis is bad for baseball, and that this is just a bunch of nerds with too much time on their hands.
The unfortunate thing is, if these people actually read these sites that they so despise, they would get a much different feeling. Anyone who has read Joe Sheehan, Nate Silver, Rob Neyer, or any of their colleagues cannot help but walk away knowing that these are people who love baseball. This is the new generation of baseball writers, a generation that loves the game, but recognizes the flaws in statistical analysis. Part of it is, of course, ignorance; one ESPN analyst who criticized Moneyball freely admits he never read the book, and the baseball writer mentioned earlier noted that he does not read the Baseball Prospectus emails he receives.
If these people actually read the sites and the books though, one would guess they would have a far different opinion of these new-age baseball writers. Opening up a Bill James volume, one immediately notices that his list of 100 greatest players doesn’t stray too much from everyone else’s lists (except that he includes Negro Leaguers). These aren’t people who are out in left field (no pun intended), but they’ve simply refined current methods.
Will this new group of writers be accepted quickly, their methods understood by the current set of writers? Next year will be a good test; Tim Raines, a Hall of Famer by current statistical analysis, comes up for election in 2008. Whether he passes muster with the HOF voters will go a long way with seeing just how flexible this group can be going forward.
I would like to be optimistic. After all, I’m a convert myself, and I figure if a liberal arts type like me can see the light, anyone can. All we can do is hope, and get ready for another great season.
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